Czech Republic vs Special by ReguLator

Euro 2016 - Group D

Spain / Czech Republic / Turkey / Croatia

I will give a completely different approach. First, one team will face straight elimination. The one finishing in position 4. That is 25% chance of guessing right(odds 4.00+ Spain@15.00). Pure probability speaking, 3rd position has 33.3% to be eliminated.


This gives us .25+.25*.33=0.333=33.33% (odds 3.00+ Croatia@3.00) to find a team to be eliminated choosing in pure guess.


Let's be realists. This team cannot be Spain. So probabilities change huge. It's 0.333+0.333*0.333=44.44%


This percentage translated in odds is 2.25. So picking one team with odds 2.25 or greater is fair value. (Croatia@3.00 seems tempting) but...


But Group D has first match Croatia - Turkey which means 100% at least one team will be getting points and this will be giving us an extra team to remove from choosing; it does not matter which.


If there is a winner then chances increase for the other 2 teams to be eliminated. Turkey+Czech or Croatia+Czech


I know the same goes for the other match but we chose to be realists and see that Spain will be out of this(will not lose the 1st match)


If there is no winner, match end in draw, then we have the worst scenario for the pick but it will increase the chances for the 3rd place to be eliminated as well. My scenario is that there will be at least 2 teams from all groups with 3+ points in 3rd positions.


So we have 2 teams to choose from. We have probabilities 0.5+0.5*0.333=0.67=66.67% which translates in odds 1.50


With Czech Republic @1.80 it seems we have a winner.


Don't forget that we may have 2 positions (3rd and 4th) to be eliminated.


P.S. This is written in a simple way, much theory left behind. Just taking this bet because it has higher odds than
Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Czech Rep. Group D Qualify: No Bet365 1.80 4 no WON (+3.2 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
0 0
Comments (3)
Agree- Czech team is only shade from history- very bad defence, Cech and corners and centers is also no secret that he is very poor in these situations.Of course they can surprise but odds for these bet is higher thn probability.To Croatia they have great squad if they handle it mentally, very hot heads :) they should qualify like second . From Spain i dont expect big wins and many goals.Not favourite for me in Euro
06/07/2016 - 23:57
great tip man czech were probably the weakest in all of groups the one point they got against croatia was pretty much luck only.
06/22/2016 - 02:04
Nice one, Czech was more than pathetic vs. a very very weak turkish team. Ukraine and Czech can go home in disgrace.
06/22/2016 - 02:20
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