Numancia vs Lugo by MagicRat

Numancia and Lugo both have an outside chance of reaching the play-offs but it seems unrealistic for them both, especially Numancia, therefore this could be one of those end of season games that it played in an open fashion with no pressure on either side.


Numancia have seen the third most goals in their matches of anyone in the league this season and they have had more matches than anyone else over 3.5 goals with a total of 14. Their last three matches, in fact, have had over 3.5 goals, including one home match and they have scored two goals in each of their last five matches. Seven of their fourteen matches over 3.5 goals have come in home matches with them only failing to score in a home match twice this season and one of them happened in September. They have also only kept four clean sheets at home.


Lugo have only had seven matches over 3.5 goals this season and only three of them have come in away matches but given the way Numancia games go, particularly at home and particularly lately, I'm prepared to back over 3.5 goals here. Lugo have scored in 10 of their last 14 away matches and they have also conceded in in the same number. With Lugo scoring regularly they will have a good chance to do so here against a leaky defence.


When the teams met earlier in the season the game ended in a 3-2 win for Numancia and two of their last three meetings have had over 3.5 goals, including their last meeting at Numancia which took place in December 2014 and was a ridiculously high scoring game that ended 6-6.

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Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Over 3.5 goals William Hill 3.25 8 1-0 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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