Djokovic vs Special bet by Myke
Anyone fancy Novak to win the French Open? Well I am :)
Given Novak recent loss to Murray at Rome, I was a naturally hesitant in backing Novak :(
Novak entered Rome tournament after beating Murray in the final at Madrid. One would expect Novak's form to continue but he was particularly off his best struggling at Rome.
Djokovic N. (Srb) v Robert S. (Fra) 2 : 0
7-5 7-5 Match time 1:27
Djokovic N. (Srb) v Bellucci T. (Bra) 2 : 1
0-6 63 6-2 Match time 1:39
-Lost the first set to Bellucci 6-0
Djokovic N. (Srb) v Nadal R. (Esp) 2 : 0
7-5 7(7)-6(4) Match time: 2:26
-Novak was broken early and was chasing BOTH sets 4-2 down, also noting that nadal HAD 5 setpoints in the second set which novak had SAVED to finish in two.
Djokovic N. (Srb) v Nishikori K. (Jpn) 2 : 1
2-6 6-4 7(7)-6(5) Match time: 3:04
Novak found himself trailing after first set in the semifinal, and was once again playing catchup. Novak didn't convert any of the 3 breakpoints he had in the first set. In fact, he blew the next 6 break chances (not very Djokovic-like) and finally converted on the 10th breakpoint to take out the second set. Novak lead Nish 3-0 in the third, the match looked very much over, however a lapsy service at 4-2 saw Novak broken, Nish went on holding the next service game to level the match at 4-4. After 3hours played, it came down to one final point which separated the two players, Novak converted on his third match point to seal the match at 7-5 in the tiebreak. Total points won by Novak 112, compared to 111 points won by Nish.
Djokovic N. (Srb) v Murray A. (Gbr) 0 : 2
5-7 5-7 (Match time: 1:37)
Heading into the final, Murray cruised though his 4 matchs in 8 sets comfortably, in 5hours and 21minutes.
Def. Pouille 6-2 6-1 1:02
Def. Goffin 6-1 7-5 1:36
Def. Chardy 6-0 6-4 1:18
Def. Kukushikin 6-3 6-3 1:25
Meanwhile Novak played 8hours and 36minutes before reaching the final, I do believe this slight physical fatigue combined with the mental fatigue having trailed in four consecutive matches and chasing the game last really played a big part in his loss in the final. You don't expect to win a tournament with that sort of performance pushing his luck a bit too far imo :p
Credit to Murray for beating Novak, but one must admit he came through against a physically, mentally fatigued Novak who for the whole week hasn't been playing at his very best. Even then Murray almost made a hash things given the many scarred slip ups against Novak on h2h.
I would expect a good/smart player like Novak to bounce right back, he will make the right adjustments in recognising that he should on guard from the get-go and be at the top of his game.
Novak is no doubt the player to beat on clay, very defensive and very resilient. Novak was runner up 3 times at French Open, no doubt the motivation is there for him to lift the trophy.
My biggest concern for Novak is Murray. However, the mental edge is too great in tight situations favouring Novak, and Murray is very prone to let up. (If only Lendl was still coaching Murray, I would consider backing him)
Against Nadal, the match up just favours Novak, Nadls left forehand will be neutralised by Novak's solid backhand down the line. Novak will consistently put 9/10 balls back when nadal manages 8/10, it's only a matter of time as the match progress where nadal is desperate to redline and hit winners, will succumb to more errors.
Here is a tip a wrote last year calling Novak to beat Nadal comfortably.
|French Open - Winner||Bet365||1.80||10||Won WON (+8 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.