Tottenham vs Bournemouth by Sylvester Felixus

Tottenham
VS
Bournemouth
Tottenham Hotspurs host Bournemouth this afternoon in what should prove to be a very important game for the home side. Spurs will look to regain their advantage over Arsenal and to reign in Leicester at the top of the table. Anything less than 3 points here today will be unacceptable by the fans, coaching staff and players themselves. Bournemouth on the other hand, find themselves 13th in the table with 38 points, all but guaranteed safety from relegation. In terms of motivation then, Spurs definitely have a lot more to play for here, and Bournemouth know they will have other opportunities to pick up points on the run-in to the end of the season.

 

Spurs have won 3 of their last five, drawn 1 and lost 1. 3 of their last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. In their last five games, they have hit the back of the net 8 times, averaging 1.66 goals per game. They have conceded 5 goals over the same time period, averaging 1.08 goals against per game. Playing at home, Spurs have only conceded 12 goals this season, or 0.8 goals per game, while they have scored a whopping 29 goals in front of their own fans (1.93 per game).

 

Bournemouth have begun to build real momentum moving into the latter stages of the season having won 3 games on the trot. Those victories came against Southampton, Newcastle, and Swansea. Before this mini streak, they drew 0-0 with Watford, and lost 3-1 to Stoke City. Away from home Bournemouth have scored 18 goals in 15 games (1.2 goals per game) and conceded 24 goals (1.6 per game).

 

Taking a look at the ratings should help in putting this game into context. Spurs are currently the best team in the league both in terms of attacking (1.00) and defending (+0.18). Bournemouth however, rate much lower, their attacking rating is 0.28, and for defending they rate -0.46.

 

Looking at form ratings coming into this game, Spurs (0.669) clearly have the advantage over Bournemouth (-0.218). While Bournmouth are improving week on week, they still cannot match the level Spurs are playing at.

 

Spurs Goal Expectancy - 2.12

 

Bournemouth Goal Expectancy - 1.02

 

Tottenham's mids and forwards will put a lot of pressure on the Bournemouth back line today. Spurs should play quite high up the pitch and it looks unlikely Bournemouth will be able to build much momentum going forward.

 

Backing OVER 2.5 looks tempting here, but I'm going with the stats and backing Spurs to win on the 3-way market. See this one finishing 2-0 or 2-1.

 

The odds are short, but it just shades on the side of value. Don't bother if it drops below 1.49 though.

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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Tottenham win Bet365 1.53 10 3-0 WON (+5.3 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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