Special Market vs Other by Gilles

Milan-Sanremo is the first monument of season in cycling, it is concidered a classic race for sprinters.

 

Important things to note about the track is the long distance (above 290km) and 2 important climbs (Cipressa and Poggio) in the final of the race (aprroximate last 25km).

 

John Degenkolb won Milan-Sanremo last year but he is out due to an accident on training in pre-season. Alexander Kristoff finished second last year and he won the year before. Kristoff is since long time favorite with the bookies (@6.00). Together with Kristoff, 3 other are also big favorite: Matthews (@8.00), Sagan (@7.00) and Cancellara (@13.00).

 

Michael Matthews showed big form in Paris-Nice with winning 2 stages: in prologue (bit of surprise) and win in sprint (after disqualification Bouhanni). If this race finishes in a sprint with Matthews in it, he will be the man to beat in my opinion.

 

Fabian Cancellara is another big favorite and many people think he is the man to beat for this race. Cancellara is in his last year of career, but he showed very, very strong things in Tirreno-Adriatico and Strade Bianche. Cancellara said ‘its not just my last Sanremo, I want to win it’. Cancellara is not a sprinter but his attack in last kilometers can be very dangerous (he has also a good time trail in the legs, so hard to get him back after escape).

 

Since long time I think Peter Sagan will win Milan Sanremo this year. I think he has set his mind on this race. He was very close in previous years. For sure, Sagan want to win a big race, a big monument, and especially in world champion jersey. Sagan is allround very talented, he can possible follow attackers on Cipressa or Poggio, has very good skills downhill and has good sprinters qualities too (see rankings previous years/Green Jerseys Tour de France…). So in my opinion, taken all together, Sagan has most chance to win this race.

 

Of what I saw in news and so, I think Cancellara fears most Sagan as the one who can beat him. Also, Mario Cipollini, former winner of Sanremo, made in February statement in papers that Sagan should win Sanremo becos he has the personality/character for it. I think this will triggered Sagan too. Tinkoff state also on website they want to win Sanremo with Sagan.

 

Others who also have good chances are Gaviria (sprint – see Tirreno, but will he survive 290km?), Van Avermaet (attack), Nibali (attack, talented Italian, former top 3), Cavendish (sprint, former winner), Boasson-Hagen (overall talented, shown strong things in Qatar), Swift (former top 3, sprint, Sky) Kwiatkowski (attack, Sky), Stybar (attack), Bouhanni (sprint),…

 

My bet here is Peter Sagan E/W @6.00 (1/4 1, 2, 3, 4) at Betfred. Estimated returns for 4 stakes is 16.50.

 

I like this Each Way bet becos we get 4.50 back if Sagan not win but is still in first 4. If Sagan wins we get 16.50 (12.00 + 4.50)

 

(Paddy Power give better odd @7.00 and has also 4 places each way instead of usual 3 places, returns 19.00)

 

(Place bets also possible for example at Unibet Sagan @2.00 (1-3)

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Peter Sagan E/W (1/4 1, 2, 3, 4) BetFred 6.00 4 Demare LOST (-4 units)
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