Ayacucho vs Melgar by MagicRat
The third round of fixtures in the Peruvian Apertura sees Ayacucho host Melgar with both teams having lost one of their opening two games, although Ayacucho drew their other game whilst Melgar won their's.
Ayacucho drew their last game in a 1-1 away draw against Defensor La Bocana but prior to that their only home game so far this year was a high scoring affair that saw them lose 5-2 against Universitario. Their two goals in this game were in keeping with their home performances last season because you have to go back 13 matches to find the last time Ayacucho failed to score in a home game and in 8 of the 12 games where they have scored they have managed to score two or more goals. Furthermore, they have conceded in eight of those 12 home matches and they have conceded two or more goals in six of those matches.
Melgar are coming into this game a 2-1 home defeat against Sporting Cristal but their opening game, an away fixture against UTC Cajamarca, saw them leave as 3-1 winners. If you include the final fixtures of last season along with their opening two games of this year then four of their last five matches have had over 3.5 goals with Melgar scoring two or more goals in each of those four matches and they, in fact, scored at least three goals in three of the matches. Furthermore, their last four away matches have also had over 3.5 goals with Melgar scoring two goals twice, three goals once and four goals once.
Given all of this I think there will be goals in this match but a telling thing here is that odds of 3.75 seem to be a little too high which is why I'm going to be backing over 3.5 goals. The average for over 3.5 goals is closer to 3.35, so a jump of 0.40 is huge and it seems even better when you consider that the average for over 2.5 goals is around 1.95.
|Over 3.5 goals||William Hill||3.75||8||0-3 LOST (-8 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.