Academica vs Belenenses by Garc1

Academica
VS
Belenenses
13th round of Portuguese league between academica and Belenenses.

 

Acadamica comes in the 17th position with 1win, 4 draws and 1 defeat, not good, in fact terrible performance in the table, mainly because of the first 6-7 rounds were they didn't manage to win any game at all.But the new manager Filipe Gouveia came into the team and at least gave some morale to the players, changed the team´s tactics for a more consistent 4-3-3 and until the game against Benfica didn't lost any game for 5 rounds.

 

This team is one of the weakest of the league, mainly because it survives of loan players from other clubs, morale is hard to stay high with the players main focus is to get back on the former big clubs.With the news that comes out every day in the papers of new signings in the bigger clubs you can imagine what that does to a loan player that only wishes to return and see is spot being occupied by another player...

 

This team has a lot of weak points:

 

-conceded goals in 9 of the last 10 games in the league.

 

-In the last 12 conceded the first goal 9 times and didn't manage to turn things around and win.

 

-Only 1 win at home, against Boavista, in the last 6 games.

 

-the best striker only has 4 goals in all competitions( league,league cup,cup...)

 

They desperately need a win, but the defensive sector is more competent than the offensive, built mainly to concede few goals,its a constant battle for points and i am afraid that it will be like that through all of the season.

 

Belenenses comes in the 13th position,strange right?? Being an European team this season, winning Basel and lech Poznan and only 13 points in the league, that´s right!! This team has not the quality to play European games and maintain the quality at home, for that this team is quite short, misses options to replace the extra effort.

 

Last Thursday they lost against Fiorentina by only 1-0, they even had a shot of qualifying but for that they had to win one of the best Italian teams...Not easy...

 

With the tremendous effort in that game against Fiorentina its quite reasonable to think that playing away against academica that desperately need points comes in a bad time, if the game were at home it was easier.

 

Belenenses didn't score any goal from the last 3 games so the actual moment is difficult, the extra effort of europa league is accumulating fatigue in a short team like Belenenses.

 

If we take a good look at the direct confront, in the last 10 games they drew 6!! 60% of draws, in the current moment, with the extra effort of europa league from Belenenses, the shortness of scoring opportunities from Academica and Belenenses makes this option a high value one in my opinion.

 

The under 2,5 is really low, i think that the draws applies really well in this one so a 0-0 or 1-1 is a really high possibility .

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Draw and under 2,5 10bet 3.00 6 4-3 LOST (-6 units)
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