PSV Eindhoven vs CSKA Moscow by DoubleDown

PSV showed up in Manchester last week and fought hard for a scoreless draw in round 5 of the Champion’s league. Despite being out-shot and only having possession 42% of the time, it was enough to keep their Champions League play-off hopes alive. Since then they've kept a perfect record, winning in Vitesse and in Eindhoven against Alkmaar in the Eredivisie.


In the Champions League, PSV has a 2-1-2 record with 6 goals allowed and 6 goals scored. While winning both their home games and outscoring their opponents 4 to 1, they've lost 2 and drew 1 on the road while scoring 2 and conceding 5.


PSV is one of the few teams that stays motivated under pressure. Unlike most teams, when they’re down a goal they play harder, if they miss on a good chance they push to get it back. Even if they’re short a man, you can count on them to stay motivated and perform. An invaluable quality to have while playing a decisive match like this because if they lose, they’re heading down to the Europa.


While in Eindhoven they beat Wolfsburg 2-0 and while in Wolfsburg they lost 2-0. They also beat Manchester U while playing @ home 2-1 and drew them 0-0 while in Manchester. As you can see they’re great hosts but not so great guests. Their Champions league performance so far reflects this.


Now with 7 points, just two behind 1st place Wolfsburg and one behind 2nd place Manchester U, a win here is a sure way to secure them a spot in the play-offs. The other way is if Manchester U lets in at least 2 goals more than PSV in round 6 and ties. I guess the only question is, do they want to take their chances in the Champions League or do they want to try for something more attainable?


The last time these teams met in round 2, PSV outplayed CSKA Moscow but ended up losing by a penalty. The referee awarded 2 penalties to Seydou Doumbia of CSKA Moscow in the later part of the first half. Doumbia scored one and missed one completely to end the first half with a 3-0 goal lead. PSV managed to come back with 2 goals, one in the 60th and the other in the 68th minute. While looking confident and on their way to securing a draw, during the 80th minute defender, Santiago Arias got sent off for running into another player while clearing the ball from in front of the goal from a free kick. To me what looked like an honest mistake, arguably cost PSV the game. I think the referee had some money on CSKA Moscow too… Even the commentators suggested that the referee was bias. Despite the red card PSV did not concede anymore goals but they ended up losing 3-2.


For 2 years now I’ve been putting my money on PSV and they've consistently paid out. Out of all my favourite HOME teams, PSV tops the list. Having only lost 4 times @ home in their last 2 seasons in all competitions and 1 of those losses coming from a friendly, you can see why I appreciate them. The dark side to this stat is that 2 of those losses were against Russian teams in the Europa last year. Since then I haven’t bet on them @ home in any competitions except the Eredivisie, until now. Their performance thus far in the Champions league has led me to believe that they have what it takes to pull off a win here. One must also keep in mind that this was over a year ago and they've improved tremendously on an international level since.


CSKA Moscow will be trying to win for the first time in 7 matches on Tuesday. Having scored just 2 goals since they’re last win in October, CSKA has to be frustrated.


With no chance of making it to the Champions League play-offs, CSKA Moscow will be playing for a spot in the Europa now. They have to win here by 3 goals in order to qualify as they have just 4 points while scoring 4 and allowing 7. Compared to PSV’s record of 7 points, 6 goals and 6 conceded. A win of such proportions here for CSKA would be close to a miracle. The last time they won by 3 points was in a friendly home match against Khimki in early J

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Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
PSV Pinnacle 1.95 8 2-1 WON (+7.6 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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Comments (7)
Nice one, Doubledown. I love this thorough analysis that u did here and I'm putting my money on it.
12/07/2015 - 13:25
Great work.More tipsters like this would be great to see.
12/07/2015 - 14:21
nice. i put ma money on psv
12/07/2015 - 17:20
"I think the referee had some money on CSKA Moscow too" hero :')
I feel sorry for lestienne, he's a good player and we will miss him for now. The good thing is.. Pereiro is an amazing strength and will replace lestienne in this match. Luciano Narsingh is another player with an injury, I think Narsingh is an important forward for PSV especially the match against CSKA in moscow he was playing a good match. I am from the Netherlands and PSV is doing well as you said but I have to be honest.. Last match against Vitesse was a close call. Vitesse was the best the whole match and PSV just robbed
12/07/2015 - 20:17
Edit: If CSKA wins they will play Europa because goal difference does not count this event. CSKA goes Europa even if they win by 1 goal because of mutualresults. If they win they've won twice and that makes it 2 wins over 0 in mutual results and brings them to Europa.
12/07/2015 - 22:31
it good analysis but a wrong prediction.
cska moscow will win.
it paid for winning 1 game against psv same as would win 10 games in russian premier league.
now you see difference why zenit beat easily valencia but cannot beat a humble ufa 1:1 at home.
12/08/2015 - 02:13
I recognize your eagerness to write the details here, but mutual matches comes before goal difference.... page 23:

"a. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the
teams in question;
b. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in
c. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams
in question;" etc.

Which should change perspective a little bit. CSKA can go and play free, and they ha
12/08/2015 - 02:52
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