Voluntari vs Dinamo Bucharest by Rostick
The point is, Dinamo Bucharest actually plays this match at home. Voluntari is a newly promoted team that is using Dinamo’s stadium to play their home games this year, as their Arena is not licensed for Liga 1. They have no fans, so the Dinamo stadium will be populated as usual with Dinamo supporters, staying in the same places. Training went as usual for the Red Dogs, they did not have to change places or anything like that. There is even speculation that Dinamo might use the hosts locker room, so really it`s hard to argue that this is as much as a home match for them as it gets.
The bookies who put out odds earliest clearly did not know about the situation, as they opened with odds as high as 2.35 and the insane price dropped instantly to about 1.70, than instantly went up to about 1.90 after top bookies put out odds. After the early chaos, the odds currently stagnate, but will surely drop back these days – as for now few people outside Romania know about the home court issue and the match is on Monday.
When Dinamo was the official host team earlier this year, 3 months ago, they had odds 1.65 and easily beat Voluntari 3-0. Now the odds are almost evens and that is a huge opportunity for punters. What’s more, Voluntari came to Dinamo with much more hope in the previous meeting, they had only 1 loss in the first 4 matches and looked like a team that was hard to beat, while Dinamo changed almost the entire lineup and not many trusted them. Now, the Red Dogs have much favorable circumstances so I reckon even odds of 1.70 would be too high for Dinamo. Current odds make absolutely no sense, anything over 1.80 is an absolute gift!
As far as match analysis goes, it’s really rather simple and I won’t dwell on it too much, as clearly the bet is worth taking because of the home court situation – but Dinamo should totally win this game.
Voluntari is the second to last placed team in Romania and they would be dead last if Petrolul did not suffer a points penalty. The “hosts” are arguably the worst side in Liga 1 and have an unflattering statline of 1 win, 8 draws and 9 losses this season – with the only win being against last placed Petrolul. Voluntari has 2 draws and 1 loss in the last three rounds, coming after a 2-2 draws against fellow relegation strugglers Botosani.
Dinamo is on the back of two consecutive wins, with the last one representing a huge morale boost. The Red Dogs defeated Steaua 3-1 last Sunday in the biggest Romanian derby, their first win over their rivals in 4 years. Surely Dinamo is brimming with confidence right now and they are actually playing pretty well, but obviously there’s the danger of a hangover effect after such a big win. However, I like the fact that the Red Dogs immediately started speaking about the Voluntari game after they beat Steaua, saying that they can only celebrate after winning this one as well. Coach Mircea Rednic also called them up to training camp from Saturday until game time to ensure that focus is fully on the Voluntari clash. A win is mandatory, as Dinamo is still far from having secured a playoff spot
I like Dinamo to win this one, they are by far the better team, in good form and pumped up after the Steaua win, also getting 2 important players back from injury – Marc and Matei, both regular starters. They seemed to have taken the necessary measures to avoid a hangover effect and, most of all, they are actually playing this match at home – by far the most important factor when we look at the odds. Clear value bet this one and it will surely also hold sure bet / trading opportunities before game time, as the odds will drop, so I suggest taking this one early. My tip is Dinamo to win. Prediction: Voluntari – Dinamo Bucharest
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|Dinamo||William Hill||1.95||10||1-3 WON (+9.5 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.