Paire vs Nishikori by Khum
Benoit Paire vs. Kei Nishikori
Over my betting career one of the most important patterns I've noticed is that Benoit has enough quality to take a set from almost any top player but he also has the mental lability that puts him in position to lose sets to almost any weak player. That has put me often in position to cash out of his his matches gone over the total in sets or games.
That being said, we should also notice some more patterns:
- Paire has played 4 matches in Tokyo and al went over the total. This year he played 3 times and each onme was a threeseter.
Nishikori has played 16 matches in the past 4 years here, in Tokyo. 11 of them went over the total and 9 were threeseters.
- In this week each match these two were involved in went over the total and 5 from 6 were threeseters.
- Their last two h2h matches had 4 and 5 sets.
So, despite the local favourite being a heavy favourite in this encounter I think we have enough reasons to expect another threeseter today, especially keeping in mind that Benoit is probably in the best form of his carreer and Kei is experiencing again some physical issues (in the quarterfinal he has called the trainer in order to take care of his shoulder).
If this match wil go the distance, in the third set I'll rely on the fact that Nishikori is on home ground, heavily supported and he is the best ATP player in 2015 when it comes to a deciding set. Though he lost the decider he has played in US Open against his today opponent, he's 16-0 in his other 16 deciding sets played in this year. I don't see him losing another decider against Paire, not in front of his home crowd.
Nishikori to win in three sets is the outcome I expect after a potentially spectacular tennis match.
Let's go green!
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|Kei Nishikori to win 2:1||Bet365||4.00||5||2-1 LOST (-5 units)|