Northern Ireland vs Greece by DrVonKlaps

Euro 2016 qualifiers, Group F, Round 9 (second-to-last). Northern Ireland vs Greece. One other inaccuracy of the odds and I will explain why. It is about over 2,5/under 2,5 goals. If you see the matches of the two teams, the vast majority ended with less than 3 goals (even less than 2 goals). No doubt.


Greece: 7 out of 8 matches in the group ended with less than 3 goals (and many of them even less than 2 goals). On the other hand 5 out of 8 matches of N. Ireland ended with less than 3 goals scored. That explains the odds. Someone could bet on under 1,5 goals. If we were in the mid season, with much at stake, that would probably be the best bet.


But now we have this situation: N. Ireland (currently in 1st place) have to win this in order to secure direct qualification and not to worry about next match (away vs Finland).


On the other hand Greece, is a team that usually plays (too) defensive and in this round Stage have scored almost no goal. But now, Greece have nothing on stake and nothing to win. There is no need to play defensively. They will play freely as if they play a friendly game. Probably they (we) will try to forget this season. It was probably the worst season of our National Team. A team that plays freely without being under pressure, is capable of the worse or even the best result.


Having that on mind, the odds for over 2,5 goals (@3,50) do not reflect the data of the match and the true probabilities. How many times do we find so high odds for a over 2,5 bet? I place my stake on over 2,5 goals.




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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
over 2,5 goals Bet365 3.50 5 3-1 WON (+12.5 units)
0 0
Comments (10)
Why over , i think North Ireland to win but to win and over or to win and under beacuse greek dont want to play no motivation
10/06/2015 - 22:31
Under 2.5 for me. Greece won't be too interested in this match. Team morale has hit an all time low. A group they were expected to top or at least qualify from, they find themselves rock bottom of the pile. A must win for Northern Ireland though to help secure their first participation in a major tournament since1986 when they qualified for the FIFA world cup. N. Ireland win to nil for me. 1:0, 2:0. Kyle Lafferty to score too is a good value bet.
10/07/2015 - 05:23
Greece is too tilted to score. And NI wont score more than 2.
10/07/2015 - 18:08
I'm from Greece, the problem is not in quality but in expierence and in morale of team.
Greek team still to sign a long season coach. Greek player says that play to win and improve their mentality.
Also Greek team will have some new players in squad and may debut tomorrow.

I think Greece will score 1 goal, so it's better to play over 2,5! Right score 2-1,2-2
10/07/2015 - 20:40
Kyle Lafferty, who has scored 7 out of Northern Ireland's 12 goals in the qualifiers, will be suspended on Thursday. Also, I doubt that Greece will suddenly start playing good football and scoring goals, especially against a side that can't afford to lose. 0-0 or 1-0 seem like the most likely results to me.
10/07/2015 - 21:16
Kyle Lafferty is suspended, he played all 8 matches and scored 7 goals, Conor McLaughlin, their main right back, played all 8 matches is suspended and also Chris Baird, right back but played as a midfielder is suspended, he played all 8 matches, also suspended... 3 main players are suspended, Northern Ireland had problems against Hungary at home and managed to make a lucky draw...

In my opinion Greece have big chances to win this match, even if their form isn't good they have no pressure, they play for fun and that's very dangerous for any team, even in Romania, Greece had some scoring op
10/08/2015 - 00:50

Why are they suspended?
10/08/2015 - 11:46
yellow or red cards... Also Johny Evans is still injured...
10/08/2015 - 13:33
LR10 the end 3 point goes for..... North Ireland
10/08/2015 - 14:27
N. Ireland only need a point from two games so I don't think they will go chasing the game so people people assume they will do on this website.
10/08/2015 - 16:43
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