NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay by Sors
The right-hander yielded 7 hits and 3 runs, while fanning three over six innings of a 3-4 loss at Boston last Monday – ninth start from twelve in 2015, in which he’s surrendered three or fewer earned runs.
Nova, however, has received a total of 10 runs of support in his last five starts, which is really surprising, given the fact that the Yankees are ranked second among all MLB teams in runs (653) and RBI (628).
The right-hander gave up 6 hits and 4 runs (three earned), while walking three over five innings in his last start versus Tampa Bay on July 5 (1-8) and is 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA in fourteen career starts against the Rays.
On the other hand, he’s posted a 2.40 ERA in his previous nine starts against Tampa Bay at Yankee Stadium.
Evan Longoria is 10-for-32, with 3 HR, 7 RBI and three walks off Nova, James Loney is 7-for-15, with 2 RBI and three walks, Daniel Nava is 4-for-13, with a double, 1 RBI and two walks, while Kevin Kiermaier is hitting 1.000 (2-for-2) against him, but Logan Forsythe, Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore and John Jaso are a combined 3-for-22, though Jaso has 1 RBI and four walks in the matchup.
Tampa Bay will give the ball to Chris Archer (12-10 with a 2.78 ERA), who gave up just 4 hits and struck out six over six scoreless innings of a 6-3 win in Baltimore last Monday.
Archer surrendered two or fewer runs in eleven of his previous fourteen road contests in 2015 and lasted at least six innings in twelve of those fourteen outings (9-3 with a 2.48 ERA).
In the matter of fact, more important for my bet is that the right-hander yielded 10 hits and 2 runs, while striking out sixteen in 13 2/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees this season and is 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in eight career starts versus New York (3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts at Yankee Stadium).
Jacoby Ellsbury (8-for-12, with a homer, 3 RBI and three walks), Brett Gardner (7-for-21, with two doubles, 1 RBI and a walk) and Didi Gregorius (2-for-5, with a double) fare well against Archer, but Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann and Chris Young are a combined 6-for-45.
I expect less than nine runs in the final game of this series against the Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays.
|under 8.50||Pinnacle||1.74||8||6-4 LOST (-8 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.