Shirak vs Zrinjski by Luca Garzeli

I thought for a while about this game, and I was wondering if the bosnian side is capable to take a good result there in Armenia. Sometimes is difficult to evaluate how powerful are two teams in these low leagues, and that will be the main problem of the Europa League's matches, but in my opinion Bosnian league is BETTER than Armenian league. And the odds are still changing in favour of the guests, that 2 days ago were TOO much favourites.

 

Zrinski finished 3rd last season, and stepped back from last year, when they won the domestic league and played against Maribor in UCL's qualification round. This is a extremely solid team at home, where has lost just one game (vs Sarajevo in Bosnian Cup) since 04/2013, with an impressive 1/44 games lost during that run. Far from home, as everybody could imagine, is a different team. I guess they're very confident in his game at home, and as guests they tries to play very defensively. Last season they conceded 13 goals in 30 league games, and playing this game at the start of the season, in my opinion, will see less goal chances than a game in middle of the season. Zrinjski is under 2.5 goals in 20 of his 23 last matches, and as away team is under 2.5 in 9/10 games. They drew in a only friendly game this new season (1-1 vs Zeljeznicar). Now they have a new coach that seems that doesn't like to play defensively, but the team will need some time to play they way his coach wants. Marinovic was the Borac Banja's coach last season, and the team finished with 26 goals scored and 26 received in 30 games played. He said that they want to go through, but the travel is uncertain, because they don't know how good is Shirak (lol, scouting rules).

 

Shirak is still the favourite here. It's a team that has been improving last years in domestic competition. This was a weak team since 2012, but they're the last 2 years in a good level. The main squad is formed by local players, but last season they sourprised signing 2 Ivory Coast players. Both two scored the 50% of the team goals, and are right now the main danger for guests. The backbone's squad is slightly old, with some years playing together, but they alternate some young players and others +35yo players. Shirak is a scorer team when play with teams with less quality upfront, but they struggled when play against Alashkert, Pyunic and these kind of armenian's top teams. For sure won't be the same a game between them and a low-classified team, and a game against these bosnian guys.

 

Bosnian side, seems that moved well in the summer transfer, and add some good pieces to his squad. They lost Crnov, but signed a Serbian players Zeravika and Filipovic came from the domestic league teams, as young bosnian player Zakaric. One acquisition from outside Bosnia, Mesanovic, that returns to the country after his year in Croatia (Osijek), but he won't play that one, as Zakaric.

 

All in all, I could see a rough away team, that is unlikely that lost by a +2 goal margin. Zrinjski +1 is @1.60, but most of times this kind of bet is for void, so I'll choose the under, that I think it will happen more than 55% of time. Without see any game of these two teams recently, it's hard to venture for a double chance's opportunity with guests, that pays @2.15, but it's an interesting opcion for small stakes.

 

PD: Odds are rising fast for guests. Shirak pays @1.46 two days ago and today is @2.15 now at 1:00pm, and dropping for goals under in some sits that puts this bet around @1.60, but many other still have @1.75-@1.80. I think the market is a bit confused with that game. pin
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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Under 2.5 BetVictor 1.83 9 2-0 WON (+7.47 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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Comments (1)
Luca Garzeli
For sure in the secong leg I'm going for Zrinjski win or BTTS. Today Zrinjski deserved a better result, but the two Ivory Coast players, specially the on fired Bougouhi, put the quality in attack. In the second leg, with nothing to lose, Bosnian coach will play full attack, and is something that we have to take in mind.
07/02/2015 - 20:21
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