Bolivia vs Peru by Luca Garzeli
Bolivia showed some differents faces in the round-robin, being solid for 135 minutes, the first game against Mexico and the first half against Ecuador. In these games they played against an alternative mexican NT, and took advantadge of the Ecuador's mistakes in the fist half, while they surrendered in the second, and they were close to draw with 3 goals ahead in the first half.
As we could see yesterday, these 1/4 finals will be a lowscoring games. I like Perú, because is an offensive NT, but unfortunately they fail to give good passes in the last meters, because they haven't an offensive midfielder like Valdivia in Chile. Pizzarro is used to play in that position, but isn't that kind of player. In my opinion Venezuela is better NT than Bolivia, but I could imagine a match like the past 1:0, where Venezuela tried to defend the draw ant Perú attack all the time till they finally found the goal opportunity.
In an hypothetic draw at HT, Perú has some weapons for the second half. They have some good headers like Pizzarro or Guerrero, and in the past games the right back Advincula was very dangerous with his crosses. In the other side, Vargas isn't so deep, but he is a real threat with his long shots, and both two will maintain fixed the Bolivian defense.
Both teams haven't a big powerful attack, so I expect a low start, with more Peruvian oportunities, and with some luck Bolivia trying to survive. The "greens" have very few offensive arguments, and Moreno is usually the only danger, but he's alone in attack.
Trying to find some value, because in those kind of knockouts rounds is unlikely to see a lot of goals, for this reason I'm going to avoid the Peru-1. The last 4 games between those two NT's finished in a draw. Perú is the better side, but I don't like a big stake here, because south american teams are more equal than sometimes might seem.
|HT/FT: Draw/Perú||Unibet||4.80||3||0-2 / 1-1 LOST (-3 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.