HIFK vs RoPS by Luca Garzeli
At home, HIFK is unbeaten this season, with 2/3/0 – 7/5. They have the biggest stadium in Veikkausliiga (shared with his city’s enemy HJK Helsinki), and one of the larges fan bases of the country. Newly promoted, first time in 37 years, but is not expected to see HIFK in the relegation zone at the end of the year. The coach Honkavaara likes to press high and put the teams in pressure at home, but sometimes they failed to stay compact. This kind of mistake is more likely to happen at the beginning of the games. They have a big spirit, and this season any team has been capable to comeback against them when HIFK takes the lead. On the contrary, hosts were from behind in 8 of 11 games this season, and they were capable to equalize in 5 of them. Further, when the game was tied in the second half, they never lost the game, and were able to score 5 goals in the lasts 5 minutes, that gave them 7 points. For this reason I will avoid the DNB at full time. One interesting bet is HIFK win from behind, that pays around @13.
Guests are the revelation team this season. They started the year in an awful form, losing 3/3 league matchs in a 5 game winless (cup + league) conceding 17 goals and scoring only 4. But suddenly, he received HIFK at home and coach Malinen finally found the key. They won 2-0 and since then, RoPS are in a fantastic streak, winning 8 of 9 league games conceding only 3 goals. Some changes could explain this transformation. New acquisitions Pirinen and Hradecky learned to play together, and key players Jammeh def. (10/0) and midfielder star Moshtagh Yaghoubi started to play more minutes in the starting lineup. Afghan young player Yaghoubi has some problems with Malinen coming off the bench, but his little differences were resolved when the midfielder played more minutes, so seems that the coach managed adequately the situation.
Precisely, since the under-21 finish player are playing better, his teammate Aleksander Kokko is scoring well. Kokko is 8/6 in the last 8 games and is looking for his best goal performance (15 goals in 2012 when he arrived at the team). Good defensive improvement, quality flashes from Yaghoubi and the goals from Kokko are giving RoPS the 2nd place in the league. Most important thing for the bet is the fact that when them win a game, 7 of 8 times the team scored in the first half, and 6 of 8 times they won the half.
Then, I am hinting that RoPS could win the game. I confess that my first choice before check the odds was look for a RoPS DNB FT win, but HIFK has some disturbing comebacks this year. Nevertheless, I think that RoPS is solid enough to keep the lead if they score first, but I prefer this one. I was thinking about a lower stake bet, as RoPS win by 1 goal margin @4.20, too. It's a risky possibility. I choose the safer option.
· 1st leg finished with a home win at RoPS stadium (2-0)
· RoPS won 2-3 in 2012 when they visited HIFK in Ykkonen league winnig at half time 2 of 3 encounters that year (2 at home).
· Since 23/04 RoPS only has lost 1 first half (1-0 vs Mariehamn) and has won 6.
· Since 23/04 (9 games) RoPS only has conceded 3 goals.
· HIFK doesn’t score in the last 2 league games, and only won the first half 2 times in the 11 Viekkausliiga games.
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|RoPS DNB 1st Half||Bet365||1.73||6||1-0 LOST (-6 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.