S. Williams vs Bacsinszky by Myke
Pick based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide
This tournament Serena has been particularly patchy and does really make her backers sweat. She was slow to get off the start dropping first set in round 2,3,4 to Friedsam, Azarenka and Stepens respectively. She was seriously in trouble against in trouble where she found hersel trailing 4-2 in the second set, and behind 2-0 in the third set, but nerve got the better of Azarenka trying to capitalise on the break lead and unable to close it out; having choked on 3 match points (40-00) at Rome early May was still fresh in her mind.
Serena has again shown her ability to recover and grind out the win in all those matches when things weren't going her way. She really knows how to overcome hurdles and play herself into form. She then cruised over Errani in the semi, exploiting her putrid 80mph serves won in straight sets. In spite of this I'm still not entirely convinced with Serena's form.
Timea Bacsinszky will be a tricky opponent for Serena. Bac is a natural counter puncher with a really solid reliable backhand, this combination will no doubt help her cope with Serena's power forehand. Also on clay surface will favour Bac because she's a clay courter and secondly will negate a bit of Serena's powerful shots when it hits the surface. Bac has variety and will mix up her shots and has the ability to go for winners, which is why I think this match up today will not be as easy for Serena as odds suggest. Bacsinszky wont give Serena power returns consistently like Azarenka and Stephens which Serena feeds on. Bacsinszky has a decent serve unlike Errani where Serena just walked all over. For these reasons I believe Bacsinszky is good enough to take a set today, given that Serena does have her lapses and does have that 'look' when she just cant be bothered. It wont surprise me if Serena starts slow again today.
Serena leads 2-0 on h2h, once on clay in Rome where first set went to a tie break, and more recently two months ago at Indianwells where Bacsinszky was up a break leading 3-1 first set, and fell behind. She was also up a break in the second set 2-1. Although they were losses, Bacsinszky demonstrated that she does have her chances against Serena.
19/03/15 Indian Wells QF 75 63
05/05/10 Rome Masters R1 76(2) 61
Backing Bacsinszky to at least a set today, Bacsinszky +1.5 at odds 2.23, stake 8/10.
|Bacsinszky +1.5||Unibet||2.23||8||2-1 WON (+9.84 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.