Dortmund vs Wolfsburg by Myke

Dortmund
VS
Wolfsburg
Dortmund - Wolfsburg

 

Borussia Dortmund 13-7-14 (46 points) 47/42 (+5 goals)

 

Wolfsburg 20-9-5 (69 points) 72/38 (+34 goals)

 

In domestic league this season Wolfsburg managed 69 points from 20 wins and 9 draws. They scored a staggering 72 goals (just eight behind Bayern Munich 80 goals) owing to their star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, striker Bas Dost and the team generally as a whole are so efficient at finding the net! But what is really impressive is that Wolfsburg has suffered only FIVE defeats (in 34 domestic league games) by just ONE-GOAL margin when playing AWAY. Also the loss against Augsburg was understandable as Wolfsburg were distracted by the important fixture ahead v International in europa league. And losing AWAY to league winner Bayern Munich 2-1 and 3rd placed Borussia 1-0 is forgivable, no shame in those defeats.

 

Sat 23/08/14 Bayern Munchen 2 - 1 Wolfsburg

 

Thu 25/09/14 Hertha BSC 1 - 0 Wolfsburg

 

Sun 23/11/14 Schalke 04 3 - 2 Wolfsburg

 

Sun 08/03/15 Augsburg 1 - 0 Wolfsburg (suffered the loss ahead of their 1st leg knock-out europa league Fri 13/03/15 UEL Wolfsburg 3 - 1 Internazionale)

 

Mon 27/04/15 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 0 Wolfsburg (Borussia won in the 90 min)

 

Neutral Ground

 

This game will be played in Berlin(neutral location) and I honestly can't see why Dortmund is being made favourite at such low odds. Finals experience (favours Dortmund). The only thing that's got going for Dortmund is the fact that they have the experience at finals, having recently won the cup in 2011/12 season when Dortmund was peaking (beating Bayern Munich 5-2), and came second to Bayern Munich in 2013/14 season.

 

Offence, Defence (favours Wolfsburg)

 

On paper, both teams have very comparable weak defence, if anything Wolfsburg has got a slight better defence conceding 38 goals vs Dortmund 42 goals (scratching my head...the word 'better defence' just doesn't sound right with either team lol. Wolfsburg has a less dodgy defence if I can put it that way). However Wolfsburg outscore Dortmund by 25 goals (72 vs 47, that's 153%). Overs is a not a bad bet here.

 

H2H and team belief/psychological (Not sure who this favours)

 

Has Wolfsburg got the psychological belief to win the cup? I am not too sure. But I do believe Wolfsburg has the mental strength to face Dortmund as they have managed 2-2 at Dortmund's home, and recently beat them 2 weeks ago at home 2-1 (16/05/15 where Wolfsburg at home was made underdog at 2.80, draw 3.50, Dortmund 2.45)

 

Both Dortmund and Wolfsburg play VERY similar brand of football, highly offensive and extremely aggressive, very exciting to watch. But generally leaving their backers holding their breath trusting the leaky defence to do the job, it's nerve wracking!

 

Dortmund has only managed 13 wins in comparison, drew 7 but lost on 14 occasions. Given this win/loss ratio and considering Wolfsburg suffering just 5 losses (by one goal), one would be brave to take Dortmund to win this match in 90 minutes. Not convincing enough for me.

 

Let me remind you that this is not the Dortmund at their absolute peak a season or two ago, they are far from their best. They have lost key players since. This is a 50-50 match if anything I'd give Wolfsburg a stronger chance winning it, much more potent team.

 

Klopp is a very good coach and has done really well for Dortmund/fans, Klopp certainly deserve a farewell win here and I hope for his sakes that this would be enough motivation to drive his players. But this alone won't cut it imo. Wolfsburg is certainly beatable, if Dortmund would consider parking the bus, tighten up their defence and hit Wolfsburg on the counter like Napoli did, but I can't see Dortmund adopting this style, it's just not in their nature. I see Dortmund being the aggressor and go for broke, Wolfsburg would be worst opponent for Dortmund to engage in an open attackpin
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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Wolfsburg to lift trophy Bet365 2.20 9 1-3 WON (+10.8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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