Dnipro vs Sevilla by Myke
Tip based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide
2005/2006 Middlesborough 0-4 Sevila
2006/2007 Espanyol 2-2 Sevilla 18' 28' 105' 115' Sevilla won 3-1 on penalties
2013/2014 Sevilla 0-0 Benfica Sevilla won 4-2 on penalties
Credit to both teams to have made it this far, Dnipro the surprise package and Sevilla, the defending EL champion; going for their 4th EL title in 10 years/season, making history.
Sevilla road to final:
10-3-1 26F-12A (7-0-0 14-3, Away 3-3-1 12-9)
Sevilla had only suffered one away defeat in 14 games, scoring a total of 26 goals and conceding 12.
Since the final will be played in Warsaw (Poland). I'll will particularly focus on the away form for both teams. Sevilla had a very solid performance, 3 wins, 3 draws and only 1 defeat to Feyenoord. There were two matches in the group stage where sevilla failed to score, Standard Liege 0-0 Sevilla, Feyenoord 2-0 Sevilla.
Dnipro road to final:
6-4-4 13F-10A (Home 5-0-2 6-2, Away 1-4-2 7-8)
In seven Away matches, Dnipro managed just ONE win over Qarabag (from Azerbaijan), ended 2-1.
In the four draws, there were two matches where they failed to get on the scoreboard, and the other two draws Dnipro came very close to losing; Dnipro equalized 90' 2-2 (must be noted that Olympiakos Piraeus was red carded 51' and hit the lead at 89' with 10 men), Against Napoli, Dnipro equalized in 80' 1-1.
Fri 03/10/14 Saint-Étienne 0 - 0 Dnipro Dniprop
Fri 07/11/14 Qarabağ 1 - 2 Dnipro Dniprop
Fri 28/11/14 Internazionale 2 - 1 Dnipro Dniprop
Fri 27/02/15 Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 2 Dnipro Dniprop
Fri 20/03/15 Ajax E2 - 1 Dnipro Dniprop
Fri 17/04/15 Club Brugge 0 - 0 Dnipro Dniprop
Fri 08/05/15 Napoli 1 - 1 Dnipro Dniprop
Sevilla has a much stronger scoring ability than Dnipro while maintaining a very comparable defence. One an argue that Dnipro defence is more solid by stating that they only conceded 10 goals compare to Sevilla's 12 goals. Yes that may be true, however if Dnipro were to play as offensive as sevilla does, committing numbers forward, can Dnipro's backline hold up? I think they would likely to concede more.
Sevilla looks a clear winner on paper but of course this is the final and nerves can get the better of players. For Sevilla, majority of their players/squad have experienced finals pressure and triumped 12 months ago, they will be more settled than Dnipro's players. Sevilla's offence and with Carlos Bacca leading up front will be too much for Dnipro to hold out in 90 minutes. Carlos Bacca's peaking ability to score from half chances instills confidence/belief when the squad do come forward and attack without hesitation. Carlos Bacca's form kind of reminds me of Falcao when he peaked for Porto winning EL 2010/2011, then went to Atl Madrid and won EL the following year 2011/2012.
My pick tonight is for Sevilla -0.5&-1.0 at odds 1.85, stake 9/10.
Only needing Sevilla to put in the irst goal, Dnipro will have to chase and that is when Sevilla is most lethal, on the counter.
|Sevilla -0.5,-1.0||Bet365||1.85||9||2-3 HALF WON (+3.825 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.