Le Mont vs Lugano by Raymond Fire

 

Big value on the MUCH better team. I would price them closer to 1.50 to win tomorrow.

 

Lugano are playing away, and they are in great form. They have been playing very good football in recent months and come to this game after 5/5 consecutive wins, home and away. Their confidence is sky high and they should have minimal problems collecting 3 points from the worst team in the division, who sit ROCK bottom.

 

Lugano are the best team in this league, this season. They belong at no.1 spot and will return to that position with a win tomorrow (Servette overtook them today with a win, but Lugano will go back to top dogs tomorrow, if they win this game in hand).... So the motivation is certainly there.

 

Besides winning 5/5 of their most recent games, from their last 10 games they have 8 wins and just 1 draw and 1 loss.. So they've been playing this well for a while.

 

Their away form is also very strong, where they win lots of games and have a positive goal difference for the season.

 

Their target is promoting to the top flight in Switzerland.. that's only rewarded to 1st place so going top with a win tomorrow is vital as the season comes towards a close.. The home side are in the opposite situation and are fighting for their lives at the bottom of the league, looking likely relegation candidates.

 

Lugano have a much stronger squad, their players combined are worth a considerable amount more and have much more experience at this level.

 

Lugano are favourites to be promoted, meanwhile the home side are favourites to be relegated... The home side actually have just come from back to back promotions so no longer than 2 years ago they were in the 4th division - the same league as Lugano's reserves! There is a gulf of quality between these two teams.

 

Lugano have revealed their team for tomorrow: Rus­so, San­tan­ge­lo; Di Gre­go­rio; Mal­vi­no, Mar­kaj, Pa­da­li­no, Ur­ba­no; Ba­sic, Bot­ta­ni, Gua­ri­no, Lom­bar­di, Me­laz­zi, Paçari­zi, Rey, Sab­ba­ti­ni; Cor­te­lez­zi, Jo­si­po­vic, Ros­si­ni.

 

They have no important players missing for tomorrow and all their key players/top scorers will be featuring in this important fixture.

 

Their team includes several of the best forwards in the league (Cor­te­lez­zi with 9 goals & Basic with 8 goals), as well as the recently loaned Rossini (from Zurich, 1st division) who already has 5 goals from his 9 games. Their XI has much more quality than the home team.. Who have had injury problems for the most part of the season.

 

Le Mont are also dreadful at home.. They have lost TWICE as many games than they have won this season at their own ground.. as well as a -8 goal deficit at home.. a very poor record.

 

Lugano have already played Le Mont three times this season, after an initial 0-0 draw they beat them 3-1 then 3-0.

 

In a total of 5 H2Hs Lugano have won 4 and drawn 1 - losing zero.

 

Lugano are the CLEAR better team on all levels and are 100% motivated tomorrow as they need 3 points to re-take the no.1 spot.. The home side have started to play slightly better and may avoid relegation by the end of the season but either way I can't see them avoiding defeat tomorrow.. home wins have been a VERY rare occasion for Le Mont since joining this league.. they've actually performed better and collected more points on the road.

 

The worst team in the league hosts best team in the league.

 

The league standings pretty much show the difference in quality.. Le Mont have less than half as many points as Lugano (29 points to Lugano's 62).

 

In the same amount of league games this season, Le Mont have conceded 23 more goals AND scored 21 less than Lugano.

 

Lugano have the most goals scored AND least goals conceded in the entire division, proving to have both the best attack and defence in this league, worthy of promotion.

 

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
2 William Hill 1.84 6 3-2 LOST (-6 units)
0 0
Comments (6)
Luca
@Raymond Fire
in my two books now odds is 1.60 and 1.63
I would bet: To Win Match With Handicap: Lugano (-1) @2.06 - or - Total Goals (Lugano): Over 1.5 @1.77 - or - Lugano win+over 1.5 @2.08
what do you think about it?
THX

05/04/2015 - 14:13
Expert
Hey Fire!

Very good preview.

Are you sure you are from England?

Why don't you preview games from England?

Good luck.
05/04/2015 - 14:39
Luca
@Raymond Fire
ok i bet Lugano (-1) @2.06
GL to all and THX for your preview :)
05/04/2015 - 15:36
Raymond Fire
Sorry for the late replies..
Luca, personally I would take the asian handicap now the odds have dropped.

Expert, I am sure I am from England :)... I just find the Premiership very hard to find value in, as they are studied so much by the bookies... and i find lower English league too unreliable... So i prefer 'foreign' leagues :)

Good luck all.
05/04/2015 - 22:08
Horia
Never bet on a first vs last place game, mate.
05/05/2015 - 00:18
Raymond Fire
They were 2nd place... but yes :(
05/05/2015 - 02:30
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