Carreno-Busta vs Muller by Experttennis
Well,by the bookies Pablo Carreno Busta is considered to be a big favourite to win the match and that might be the case ,but not because he is a better player than Gilles is but because Gilles had a tough match against another Spaniard Montanes where he saved a match point and won the match in the tiebreaker so the real questions is will he recover enough for this one .
Pablo Carreno Busta is a solid claycourter , young and a promising player with good all around game and booming forehand , plays similar style to Bautista Agut only his forehand has a bit more spin on it and is a bit weaker while he has bigger serve but not as good movement . He has yet to have a tough match in Estoril and not because he dominated his oponnents well yes he dominated them but only because they were the weakest oponnents on tour . He is just getting out of a small crysis in his game that lasted 2-3 months and he had a losing streak of 7 matches in a row but looks good so far on this tournament . I consider him a favourite to win this match but not as easily as the bookmakers think that he will win it .
Gilles Muller played a real thriller last night against the Spaniard Montanes and even if he isnt able to fully recover I think that he will have enough energy to put on a fight in the first set and to hold his serve for at least opening 4 games . This two players already met in Australian Open this season and Gilles won the match in straight set with 6-4 7-6 7-6 .The big thing is that we saw only one break of serve in that match , Gilles held his ground comfortably as I think that he will do in this one too . He isnt the kind of oponnent that Pablo prefers cause you dont get that much rythm against him and he is mostly the one dictating the points at least on his serve . I think that the will give a few problems to the Spaniard and that it will be enought to cover this line .
Conclusion : played 3 sets so far out of which everyone went over the line , this time its a different surface but Gilles adjusted to the conditions well and even though he might lack strength and energy in the match I think that will show up late in the match (second set if even then ) . Carreno struggles against good servers and this one should be contested at least for the first part of the match .
PS,you can catch slightly better odds at SBObet for 1.75.
Good luck ,Experttennis
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|Over 9.5 games in first set||Bet365||1.72||8||6-2 LOST (-8 units)|