Utrecht vs Twente by Raymond Fire
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Both teams pretty much have nothing to play for as the season is coming towards a close, neither team can qualify for any European football now.
In the league they sit close to one another, Twente with 37 points in 11th place and Utrecht sit 13th with 33 points.. It has been a disappointing season for Twente though as they are usually title contenders and qualify for the Europa league at least. They came 3rd last year, achieving their goals.. but have fallen very short of the mark this year. They particularly went though a rough patch of form a couple months back... but seemed to have regained their composure since then and have been brining home some decent results. Despite their disappointing league campaign this season, they are still the better team in this fixture. Their away form has shown some improvements too, with their last 4 games ending in 2 draws and 2 wins. They are a strong team when it comes to their away record also, they usually finish right towards the top of the table with regards to away games... This season they sit in the top half, with a positive goal difference.
Utrecht, on the other hand, haven't got an impressive home record. From their 13 home games they have a 5-3-7 record.. Very poor. They have scored and conceded 29 goals at home.
Furthermore, Utrecht's form seems to have been deteriorating as the season progresses.. they started off alright but the 2nd half of their season has been weak. From their last 20 games they have 12 losses, 4 draws and 4 wins... Not good.... More recently their last 4 games have ended in 3 losses and 1 draw. Their performances have gotten substantially worse in recent weeks as they have nothing to fight for.
With regards to home form, Utrecht were a team that nobody wanted to visit this time last year... they used to win the vast majority of their home games.. however the tables have turned in recent months and they have lost 9 of their most recent 14 home fixtures. That's pretty much this whole season they have been poor at home for.
Twente also have a long and successful historic H2H record with the home side today. From 34 H2H fixtures in total, Twente have a 16-12-6 record.. winning most, then drawing, then losing... More recently, the last 4 H2Hs have ended in 3 wins for Twente, and 1 draw.
Away from home, Twente are unbeaten by Utrecht since 2008, with a combination of draws and wins since then.
Now usually I would say this fixture would be best for goals.. but (apart from the fact the bookies have s**t odds with goals in this game) I think the value is with Twente today... Twente have all their best players available, including their top scorers, Castaignos (10 goals) & Ziyech (9 goals).
Their injury list features only a rotation midfielder and substitute GK.
On the other hand, Utrecht have major issues with missing players today.. They will be without:
Markiet (defender - 29 games - 3 goals)
Barazite (forward - 16 games - 2 goals)
Boymans (forward - 9 games - 9 goals) (top scorer)
Duplan (forward - 16 games - 7 goals) (2nd top scorer)
Oar (forward - 18 games - 0 goals)
Leeuwin (defender - 27 games - 0 goals)
Zullo (defender - 0 games - 0 goals)
....I can't help but think this will have an impact on the home side's performance today... They miss 6 usual starting players.. And that includes both their top scorers and best strikers.. as well as 2 further forwards who would be the usual replacements for them.. In total, all the players they are without today, combined, have scored almost half of their total goals.
Due to this I think the value lies with Twente today... Who are already the bigger and better club, with a great H2H record.
Again, both teams don't really have much to play for.. But Twente have a reputation to save, which can still be partially sa
|Away 0.0 Asian||Bet365||1.92||6||1-0 LOST (-6 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.