Haider-Maurer vs Gulbis by Beatle
First, he has played 13 matches on clay this year and won 8 of them. He was showing solid tennis which is pretty much enough to defeat Gulbis at the moment. Gulbis doesn't have match practice in general, not even mentioning clay. Clay suits him better because on this surface he has more time to prepare his forehand which is completely wild. Ernests's forehand technique went down and now I can't even imagine how he can win games because all you have to do is to his his forehand and after couple of shots he will make some wild unforced error.
Secondly, Haider-Mauer is really very, very uncomfortable player for Gulbis. They played twice and h2h is currently 1-1. Both matches went to deciding set and both were really tight. I watched the first game played in Kitzbuhel 2012. That was when Gulbis still had a reasonable forehand and was actually playing better then now. In the second match on US Open 2013, Haider-Mauer broke Gulbis mentally and defeated Gulbis by winning 4th and 5th set. I did place a 50 eur bet on that match in the 4th set (Gulbis was leading 2 sets to 1 and with a break in his pocket) when the odds on Haider-Mauer were 19.00.
Thirdly, Ernests serve doesn't work well, either. In his last match his 1st serve percentage was around 30%. I do not reckon the last time I saw these kind of stats. I think this is also connected somehow with his forehand struggles.
2.35 are great odds against Gulbis.
Best of Luck !
|Haider-Mauer||Pinnacle||2.35||9||2-0 WON (+12.15 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.