Doncaster vs Crewe by DrVonKlaps
Tip based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide
This bet is based on the fact that in my opinion the odds are not fairly balanced. I will explain:
Doncaster (position 8 of the table, 42pts) faces Crewe (position 17, 38 pts, i.e. 4 points less, 1 match more played).
Recent form seems to be similar (3-2-1 vs 4-0-2). Doncaster won the last 2 games, Crewe won the last 3 consecutive games keeping clean sheet in the last two, indicative of an improved defensive function of the team.
Doncaster has a rather modest home record (4-4-6). Crewe's away record is not impressive (4-2-8) but keep in mind that they have won the 3 out of the 4 last away matches.
In conclusion, the match is between two teams who both seem to be in good recent form and not far away eachother in the table, with the host having a not so impressive home record. I will however accept, for the conversation, that Doncaster are the favorites. However I would expect the odds for an away win to be somewhere around 4,00. Odds for away win are actually 6,00 which is too much. Note that the distribution of the results in the League so far are: Home win 40%, Draw 25%, Away win 35%. Thus away win odds of 6,00 seem to be without sense and there is value in picking away win. I will pick 2 (0,0) asian handicap @4,15 reducing somehow my risk.
|Crewe (0,0)||Bet365||4.15||5||2-1 LOST (-5 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.