Fiorentina vs Palermo by DrVonKlaps

Pick based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide
Fiorentina
VS
Palermo
Round 18 of the Serie A and Fiorentina faces Palermo.

 

I assume that Fiorentina are the favorites looking at the odds for home win (1.70). But why are they the favorites, or lets ask why should they be the favorites?

 

Their home record is 2-4-2 with only 7 goals scored in 10 home matches. There is more: Fiorentina have not won in the last 5 home matches (last 3 League matches at home). Last home win was in October (3-0 against Udinese). Additionally they will miss central defenders Rodriguez and Savic, both sent of in the last match (0-1 defeat against Parma).

 

On the other hand Palermo is undefeated in the last 9 League matches and undefeated in the last 4 away League matches. They come from a great victory at home (5-0 against Cagliari). The away matches (1-4-3) are not their streghth but at least the have scored 12 goals away (more than Fiorentina at home) and as I said they did not lose the last 4 away matches.

 

I still believe that Fiorentina are the favorites, but not to the degree the odds suggest. Odds should be more balanced. So i believe there is value to bet for Palermo. I think Palermo win +0.75 has good odds and i will put my stake on this bet.

 

GL.

 

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Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Palermo +0.75 Bet365 2.00 6 4-3 HALF LOST (-3 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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