Almeria vs Vallecano by Jamesington

Almeria
VS
Vallecano
My suggested bet is RAYO VALLECANO (DRAW NO BET) - should the away side take all 3 points then we win at a good price of 2.15, if the match is tied then our stake is returned.

 

I propose this bet on the basis that in home matches Almeria have the worst record of all teams in La Liga, whilst Rayo are 13th in La Liga and this is likely a true representation of their quality. Rayo are the better team and are more likely to win than their opponents, but the victory is by no means guaranteed so this bet gives us the insurance of stake returned on a draw.

 

A few stats:

 

- Almeria have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (scoring 2 goals and taking 1 point from 15)

 

- Rayo have won 2 of their last 5 matches (scoring 5 goals and taking 6 points from 15)

 

- Almeria are 1 of only 2 teams to have won no home games (despite playing Cordoba and Elche at home)

 

- Rayo have won away from home against Levante and Grenada (both higher than Almeria in the table)

 

- Almeria have no real goal threat - their top scorer is midfielder Edgar Mendez (with 2 goals)

 

- Rayo's Bueno is the top Spanish scorer in La Liga (Bueno and Rayo's Leo Baptistao have 6 goals each)

 

I am certainly not suggesting that this Rayo team is a probable winner tonight but I think they have a much greater chance of victory than the home side and are worth a shot at 2.15, whilst they can be backed at 3.1 to win the game, it is much safer to have a larger stake on them with the draw being money-back.

 

Oh, and the last two occasions these clubs met... Rayo Vallecano won (3-1 in March and 0-1 last October).

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Rayo (Draw No Bet) Unibet 2.15 8 0-1 WON (+9.2 units)
0 0
Comments (2)
Max
Rayo are without Tono and Emiliano Insua through injury, while Raul Baena is banned.
12/01/2014 - 10:47
Jamesington
Yes, but Almeria have a key midfielder suspended too.

I don't feel any of this will overly effect the outcome and only use relevant/key information for my tips.
12/01/2014 - 13:46
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