Ludogorets vs Liverpool by TFB
I am fully expecting a tight low scoring game for many reasons. First of all as both teams need to win to keep their fate in their own hands neither will be wanting to give away an early goal, so bar a mistake or a touch of class (which I feel both teams are currently lacking) i'm not expecting any early goals.
Ludogorets, well this is their first year in the UCL and have certainly not been the whipping boys a lot would have expected. They do, however, lack goals and in the 4 games they have played so far they have only scored 3 and never more than 1 in a game. I don't believe they have the fire power in attack to consistently trouble some of Europe's top defenders.
Liverpool are in a similar situation both in Europe and in the Premier League. In the UCL, they have scored only 2 goals in 4 games and are clearly missing Suarez and Sturridge, with the latter still missing through injury. In their last 4 EPL games, again, they have only scored 2 goals. They bought Balotelli in the summer to replace Suarez but he has flopped big time. Other than Balotelli they have no other world class forwards.
I can see this being a tight affair and if one team takes the lead I think their main aim will be not to concede.
I think odds of 1.93 for under 2.5 goals, which is pretty much EVENS, is a +EV bet when you look at the stats.
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|Under 2.5 Goals||BetVictor||1.93||8||2-2 LOST (-8 units)|