North Carolina State vs Wake Forest by Jamesington
Two teams who have had seasons to forget meet up today in what is likely to be a battle of 'Not-bad-in-offence-but-terrible-in-defence' (NC State) v 'Not-bad-at-defence-but-terrible-in-offence' (Wake Forest).
A year ago in October Wake Forest actually won the last match-up between these two sides 28-13 but that scoreline is unlikely to be repeated today with a State victory the far more likely outcome, in the regular market the best price you can get is 1.14. Incredibly the last 7 times these sides have played each other, the home team has been the victor.
However, there is definite value in the handicap market and given that Wake Forest have been set as beneficiaries of a 16.5/17 point handicap advantage then I really think they are likely to land the handicap win. At odds of 1.91 all we need is Wake Forest NOT to lose by 17+ points and the bet will be successful. Whilst, yes, an NC state victory is likely - one of such a dominant score is not to be expected.
State have won only 1 of their last 6 matches and that was with a 7 point margin over Syracuse, they haven't been 17 point home winners all season apart from against Presbyterian - a school in an incomparable division. Wake Forest's last two matches have been defeats to teams with better records than NC State and neither of those was by more than 14 points (14 v Clemson, 6 v Boston College). These statistics indicate that Wake Forest have a solid shot at not losing by more than 17 points.
The Wake Defence is actually ranked 44 in College Football overall, compared to 74 for NC State. Worryingly though their offence is the worst in all of football (ranked 128) whereas NC State sit at 72.
All in all, it seems clear the NC State will win, but it shouldn't be as big as 16.5.
WAKE FOREST + 16.5 at 1.91
|Wake Forest + 16.5||BetVictor||1.91||10||42-13 LOST (-10 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.