MMA - My Victory Road

[saku lbn]

Ok, lets get it on:

World Victory Road, Tokyo, 5/17

Mike Pyle 1.275
Dan Hornbuckle 4.240

Yoshihiro Nakao 1.459
Jim York 2.980

Kevin Randleman 1.450
Ryo Kawamura 3.020

Satoru Kitaoka 1.313
Ian James Schaffa 3.900

all odds - pinnacle

[saku lbn]

Mike Pyle 1.275
Dan Hornbuckle 4.240

Yoshihiro Nakao 1.459
Jim York 2.980

Kevin Randleman 1.450
Ryo Kawamura 3.020

Satoru Kitaoka 1.313
Ian James Schaffa 3.900

UFC 84

#1

Ivan Salaverry vs Rousimar Palhares



Ivan - MMA veteran with record 12 - 6 - 0 (Win - Loss - Draw). Rousimar is a young blood with record 7 - 1 - 0. I'm going with Rousimar, and that's why:

- Ivan is 37 years old
- Ivan fights once a year...
- Rousimar isn't that good stand up fighter as Ivan but it's going to be a ground battle where Rousimar have an advantage
- Rousimar have a bizzare strenght + he is very dynamic
- Rousimar have great submission skills, on the ground he is dengerous in every position. He is hard to submit - short arms and legs, strong neck
- Ivan is a experienced and smart fighter, I don't think he's going to risk injury by some leglock or other Palhares weapon
- Rousimar is coming from very strong Brazilian Top Team

Ivan Salaverry 1.75
Rousimar Palhares 2.24

#2

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs John Koppenhaver



Yoshida - 9 - 2 - 0
John - 5 - 1 - 0

Stawiam tutaj na japończyka:

- both guys are well rounded but yoshida has solid judo background
- John isn't that solid fighter as Yoshida
- John hasn't fought witch such a good fighter as Yoshida
- John isn't the guy that i can trust, he have troubles with the law, he isn't 100 % pro fighter
- That's Yoshida's debut in the UFC but he has fought in the octagon with the rules very similar to the UFC (elbows) and he know how to use fence in the fight

John Koppenhaver 2.51
Yoshiyuki Yoshida 1.62

No picks but suggestions and prognosis that might be helpfull:

Sean Sherk - BJ Penn 2,90 1,35

I'm staying away from the main card bouts. BJ is ofcourse favourite but this fight is going to be 5 x 5 minutes and in this time many things can happen. Sherk is hard to submit and he might heve better cardio

Keith Jardine - Wanderlei Silva 2,35 1,50

Odds are ok for wand buth he will have hard battle with Keith

Tito Ortiz - Lyoto Machida 2,70 1,40

Lyoto is ofcourse favourite, he is very wellrounded. Tito fights rarely but Lyoto hasn't fought that strong wrestler like him. No bet

Goran Reljic - Wilson Gouveia 2,10 1,60

Again no bet. Goran is very young and that's going to be his debut at such big competitions but he seems to be more solid.

Antonio Mendes - Thiago Silva 6,20 1,10

Antonio is coming from the Europe and that it will be his debut in the UFC. Thiago has been preparing for this fight in the US. No bet.

Kazuhiro Nakamura - Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou 2,90 1,35

Two judo players. Soko is better striker and its going to be a stand up fight. Naka is hard to submit and is much more experienced in MMA.If you going to put som cash on Soko, don't do it.

Terry Etim - Rich Clementi 2,70 1,40

Rich is much much more experienced fighter, he is stronger and more solid. And Terry is coming from UK so he might be tired

Jason Tan - Dong Hyun Kim 3,60 1,25

I don't know those guys

Shane Carwin - Christian Wellisch 1,50 2,35

No bet. I don't suggest carwin, his opponent has fought in MMA much much earlier than him.

[saku lbn]

Ivan Salaverry 1.75
Rousimar Palhares 2.24

John Koppenhaver 2.51
Yoshiyuki Yoshida 1.62


Yoshida at the beginning of the fight send his opponent flying with a beautifull throw. Couple seconds later he put him to sleep by a anaconda choke.

Palhares also took his opponent to the ground and force him to tap out with a sweet armbar one minute later.

Clementi won via judges decision.

Stay tuned for my ELITEXC picks (31 may) here and at mma4life

cheers

[saku lbn]

EliteXC, Saturday May 31 / 9 pm

Phil Baroni vs Joey Villasenor

Phil is a Pride FC and UFC veteran with mma record 10 - 9 - 0.

Joe is a former KOTC champion with the record 25 - 6 - 0

* Joe have much better cardio

* Joe is a technical and smart fighter while Phil is a typical brawler (all or nothing)

* Joe ismuch better on the ground

* Joe has only lost 3 fights since 2002 ( all 3 with the top fighters) and I don't see him loosing from the fighter like Baroni

Joey Villasenor - 125 (1.8)
Phil Baroni - 105 (1.95)

[saku lbn]

Joey Villasenor - 125 (1.8)
Phil Baroni - 105 (1.95)

TKO 1st round

[saku lbn]

vs

UFC 85 Bedlam - London England, saturday, june 7

Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum vs Brandon "The Truth" Vera

Fabricio is a Brazilian jiu jitsu specialist ( two-time Jiu-Jitsu world champion, 2007 ADCC world champion, European Jiu-Jitsu champion, and a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in judo. ) with the MMA record 10 - 3 - 1.

Vera is a mixed martial artist with the record 8 - 1 - 0

* Werdum is a grappler but his standup has much improved since joining Chute Boxe

* He is taller and weights more than Vera who in my opinion fits more to the light heavy weight

* Fabricio has spend a lot of time in the Europe and that's going to be his fifth fight in England. This is going to be first overseas fight for Vera

* Fabricio has fought better strikers than Vera and he never lose via KO/TKO

* Vera might be a better striker but his stand up skills might be neutralized by the reach advantage

Pick:
Fabricio Werdum 160 (2.6)
Brandon Vera -200 (1.5)


vs

UFC 85 Bedlam - London England, saturday, june 7

Nathan Marquardt vs Thales Leites

Nathan Marquardt is a MMA fighter with the record: 26 - 7 - 2 (Win - Loss - Draw)
Wins 4 (T)
KOs (15.38%)
15 Submissions (57.69%)
7 Decisions (26.92%)
Losses
1 (T)KOs (14.29%)
2 Submissions (28.57%)
4 Decisions (57.14%)

Thales Leites - 12 - 1 - 0 (Win - Loss - Draw)
Wins 2
(T)KOs (16.67%)
8 Submissions (66.67%)
2 Decisions (16.67%)
Losses
1 Decisions (100.00%

Both fighters are submission specialists but Nathan is also very well rounded:

*great wrestling and solid striking.

* Leites have clear strategy - take Nate down where he feels more comfortable but:

- his takedowns arent his strong point

- Nate have great takedown defence

- His BJJ teachers are one of the best masters in the world, so there is nothing in Leite's ground game that might surprise him

- Nate has lost only twice by submission (all two with the great grapplers)

Pick:
Nate Marquardt -170 (1.59)
Thales Leites 140 (2.4)

[saku lbn]

Pick:
Fabricio Werdum 160 (2.6)
Brandon Vera -200 (1.5)

Pick:
Nate Marquardt -170 (1.59)
Thales Leites 140 (2.4)

Werdum has won via TKO. gif #1 #2

Marquardt has lost via split decision. gif #1

Both fights was controversial. Veras stoppage was too quickly and Marquardt should win by unanimous decision.

[saku lbn]

Dream 4

Saitama Superarena: Saitama , Japan - 6.15

#1



Gegard Mousasi vs Dong Sik Yoon

Mousasi is a mixed martial artist with 21 - 2 - 1 record.
Dong Sik Yoon is a great judo fighter with 4 - 4 record.

Classic striker vs grappler match. Mousasi is very dangerous in the stand up but:

* Dong is a world class judoka and he will take this fight to the ground

* Dong has defeated more aggresive strikers than Gegart (Manhoef, Galesic)

* when the fight go to the ground Dong should be on top and control the fight (points)

* in Dream first round lasts 10 minuts and this is more comfortable for grapplers

Pick:

Gegard Mousasi -210 (1.48)
Dong Sik Yoon +170 (2.7)


#2



Kazushi Sakuraba vs Melvin Manhoef

Another striker vs grappler matchup. I'm going here with Sakuraba because:

* Sakuraba is a world class grappler and Manhoef has no ground game

* Sakuraba have good takedowns, especially single-leg

* first round lasts 10 minuts and that should be enough for Sakuraba to finish Melvin when the fight goes to the ground

* Event is in Japan where Sakuraba is a legend and a host so judges might favourize him

* Manhoef not so long time ago was having big health problems (blood drained from lungs) so he for sure isn't 100 % prepared and also he have to travel to Japan from europe

Pick:

Kazushi Sakuraba +125 (2.25)
Melvin Manhoef -155 ( 1.65)


#3



Ronaldo Jacare Souza vs Jason "Mayhem" Miller

Another grappler vs striker fight. Jacare is one of the best grapplers on the planet. This is going to be his second MMA fight. Miller is a MMA veteran with 21 - 5 - 0 record.

* As fast as the both fighters hit the mat we don't need to worry about the result

* Millers takedown defence isn't his strongest point and Jacare have very good takedowns

* Jacares BJJ is very well adopted to MMA - it's a mix of great techniqe with dynamic strenght.

* Miller is a showman and showing off may cost him a lot

Pick:

Jason Miller +139 (2.4)
Ronaldo De Souza -149 (1.67)

For those who wouldn't be able to watch it live I'm making little play-by-play at http://www.mma4life.pl on shoutbox

[saku lbn]

Dream - 1 won, 2 lost

#1

Jeremy Horn is a mixed martial artist with great mma record 79 - 17 - 5.

Dean Lister is a submission specialist with 10 - 5 - 0 record.

* Jeremy is a veteran and past his prime
* He has lost his last 2 fights via submission with worster submission fighters than Lister
* Lister is a stronger competitor and he should be on top during ground fight
* Lister seems to be a better striker

Pick:

Jeremy Horn -130 (1.77)
Dean Lister -110 (1.91)


#2

Dante Rivera is a bjj fighter with 10 - 2 - 0 record.

This is going to be first Matt Riddles pro fight.

* Dante have more experience and better ground game

* Matt hasn't fought in front such a big crowd

* Matt isn't just ready for UFC

Pick:

Dante Rivera +195 (2.95)
Matt Riddle -215 (1.47)

[saku lbn]

I haven't got time to wrote analysis, but I was thinking about every single fight for a long time. Here we have my picks:

UFC 86

#1

Patrick Cote + 110 (2.1)

Ricardo Almeida -140 (1.71)

#2

Cole Miller -130 (1.74)

Jorge Gurgel EV (2.0)

#3

Marcus Aurelio + 200 (3.0)

Tyson Griffin - 260 (1.38)

#4

Corey Hill -230 (1.43)

Justin Buchholz +180 (2.8)

btw. - there is a UFC 86 cash contest at my site http://www.mma4life.pl with $ 300 to win in one night

[saku lbn]

oh I forgot

Jeremy Horn -130 (1.77)
Dean Lister -110 (1.91)

Dante Rivera +195 (2.95)
Matt Riddle -215 (1.47)

[saku lbn]

Ultimate Fight Night 14



Frank Edgar vs Hermes Franca

Frank Edgar is a mixed martial artist with 8 - 1 - 0 record.

Hermes Franca is a submission specialist with 18 - 6 - 0 record.

* Hermes is BJJ black belt and Frank has never fought with that great submission specialist

* Hermes have much more mma experience (UFC, WEC, Shooto, K1 Hero's veteran)

* Hermes has fought with better wrestlers than Frank and won

Pick:

Frank Edgar -140 (1.70)

Hermes Franca +235 (2.35)




Anderson Silva vs James Irvin

Pick:

Anderson Silva -440 (1.23)

James Irvin +400 (5.0)



Affliction Banned



Renato Sobral vs Mike Whitehead

Renato Sobral is a MMA vet with 29 - 7 - 0 record.

Mike Whitehead is a MMA fighter with 23 - 6 - 0 record.

* Sobral is a submission specialist and that should be his key to the victory but Mike never has been submited in his whole career.

* Whitehead was a college wrestler so he should be on top for the most of the time

* Mike fights out of famous Xtreme Couture gym.

Pick:

Renato Sobral -260 (1.38)

Mike Whitehead +240 (3.4)


From 100 to 1.000 - step IV



Terry Martin vs Vitor Belfort

Pick: Vitor Belfort

odd - 1.42

258 x 1.42 = 366