Formula 1 Tipsters

[Rooney]

Please select Malaysia (Q) if you are writing for a qualifying pick or (R) for racing..

Thank you

[CanaryYellow]

Noted.

[CanaryYellow]

70% chance of rain for the weekend now (down from 90%). Still fancy it'll be wet as forecasts get more accurate the nearer to the day we are.

*Does a rain dance*

[CanaryYellow]

Best offer a bit of explanation after the hideous looking result here on the Malaysian Grand Prix (which predictably enough has seen a few whiners to my inbox and mis-using the comments box).

To start with there are 2 ways of tipping. You either offer a tip based on what you think will win, or you can offer a tip which you hope might win but is overpriced and therefore offers good value. The second style might not always win but if you back enough of them in time you will be rewarded.

Lets suppose you think Manchester United will beat Everton. If Everton were 50.0 would you choose to still back Manchester United? No. You would back Everton and hope they could win because their odds are bigger than their actual chance of winning.

Now on Tuesday i checked the weather reports and they were predicting a very wet weekend. At the time therefore odds on saftey cars and cars finishing were going to be wrong and i threw up a heap of tips. Later in the week as people latched onto what was occuring these odds tumbled. Were these bad picks?

Take Nakajima as an example, tipped at 2.90 not to finish, when the race began he was 1.90. Now there is a near 50% profit to be had there risk free. This is just an example, all the drivers odds shortened. The same was true of the safety car bet and the number of finishers pick. Even Jenson Buttons odds to win tumbled from 250.0 to 40.0.

On Friday the tracks press officer issued wet weather warnings, with 4 hours to go the prediction was scattered thunderstorms. As we now know the wet weather did not materialise, i knew my fate after there was no carnage on turn one so a big loss to my record followed.

I will accept a bit of criticism over the sheer number of picks and taking such a huge loss of points here but i will not accept criticism over the tips themselves or being "a fish". If someone was to tell me i could back a pick that would halve in odds over the coming days with next to no risk (ie could lay the bet back at the same odds anyway) i would be over the moon.

I would urge all readers of picks to appreciate we can only offer thoughts and make win bets here, we do not get the chance to lay bets back off. Not all mine (and certainly others too) are selected because we are certain they will win, sometimes they are selected as the represent value. We highlight what we percieve to be value picks, what you choose to do with that info is up to you and you alone.

[carramba]

lol

I wouldnt bother for critics
I myself played early week some bets after weather forecast came out
stuff like winning team Honda @80, Button of course top3, pole, race
also podiums Vettel , Sutil etc
nice early value for sure, of course cant really always get lucky with that ,
still even an 10 min rainshower in malaysia would have produced massive amounts of water on track

even when we we look how safety car to deployed prices crashed massively during the week etc

[Rooney]

No need to explain yourself to the ignorant unbelievers Canary..Although it is alright if u felt doing so..hehe

I really don't know how the damn safety car didn't came out at Malaysia where weather conditions are so unstable!(every 20 mins conditions change)..Certainly someone can arguably criticise you for the vast amount of units lost but I am pretty sure that if the website had a lay feature you will be just fine..Soooo unlucky m8..

I've been thinking how we can implement a LAY option for the tipsters but it is rather hard I guess..Hypothetically speakin' someone lays home 7 units at 1.3 in the Man. Ut. v Everton match..He obviously wins +7 in case of a draw or Everton win and looses -2.1 units if Utd finally win this..So far so good..I believe admins can cope with that kind of picks if it clearly stated somehow that this is a lay bet..

Unfortunately lay bets are strongly correlated in most cases with Live Betting..So in the former example if the score stays 0-0 until Half Time someone may seize the opportunity and BACK 6 units on Utd. at 1.6 in order to lock some sure profit no matter the final result (Utd win +1.5, Utd. do not win +1)..Sit back and enjoy the rest of the game, this is the essence of proper betting, I reckon..

I have found myself wanting badly to lay some bets during the season but on Betshoot it is almost impossibe to regulate all tipsters and their lay bets..It is also rather naive to trust them during the live..A solution could be to give the privelege to certain trusted tipsters to lay bets..However they should be allowed to use the Live Betting too..We can use the forum to emulate the Live Betting exprience and ensure (from the time posted) that the tipster locked indeed a valid result beforehand..It sounds like a struggle though..I am waiting everyone for your thoughts on this one..

We highlight what we perceive to be value picks, what you choose to do with that info is up to you and you alone.

Remember that never ending debate we had with InfamousBacardi about wether or not a tipster should have a donation button? The reason I was so fiercly opposed to it, is what you stated here exactly..At the bottom line it is the reader's decision if he is going to adopt your approach or not..Therefore in a way he is taking the -risk- so in a way it is his bet, not yours to claim..

You may show the way to a stranger but you ain't gonna jump in his car until he reaches his destination..

Friendly,

Rooney

[CanaryYellow]

You are quite right of course you cannot allow tipsers to lay bets. I suppose i could have tipped a no safety car at 2.4 or bigger (was 2.9 on Betfair on the off) but then it would have confused anyone reading so i didnt bother. I was just trying to explain why even losing picks can still be very good ones.

I would adopt a "picks that will win strategy" but it goes against everything i stand for as a gambler, i look for bets i percieve to be value above all else. I know you are not a historical data fan personally but if you really stop and think about it, if everyone thought the same there would be no betting exchanges and the world would be a dull place.

[mrbodo2002]

Don't worry,next time you will be in profit!