Eurovision Finals - Greece vs Winner Eurovision betting preview

I've already written that Greece belongs to the favourites, but the odds suggest something else. I have to say that in March, when the odds are released, they were about @50. Today the best offer is @23, for example Partybets has @8. The best offer still has betfair, @5.4 to finnish Top 4. So Greece isn't an outsider as the bookies want us to believe. In the most polls Greece finished between 3. and 6. place, but never on the top like Sweden and Russia.

I rate Greece's chance to win the ESC at 12-15%, so the Partybets odds are pretty correct set, the betfair offer is a gift. I'm taking this bet because of the odds, not because the quality of the song.

Greece "imported" the song, an uptempo pop-r'n'b song, and the singer Kalomira (Marie Carol Sarantis) from the US. She became popular in Greece with the win on Fame Story 2, a talent show similar to American Idol in the States. She will perform "Secret combination", a Britney-Spears-in-disguise number with some ethnic, greek flavour.

This year we have not a clear favourite, if we look at the odds, it has to be Dima Bilan (Russia), not because of the song, but because he's a superstar in the Ex-Soviet countries and because of neighbour voting. Armenia has a similar song as Greece, an uptempo ethno-pop song, Sirusho is a better singer than Kalomira, but the song is definitely not better as the odds suggest (@6), with a bubble-gum chorus, over and over again.

"Secret combination" is a typical Greek song, a western song with eastern (greek) elements to be recognized. This (not secret) combination was pretty successfull in the last years (3., 1., 9. and 7. place in the last 4 years) and this year it won't be an exception. Greece will get points from all parts of Europe, they also get some guaranteed points from the diaspora and the neighbours. ESC is a party event, in clubs and discos will be organised partys all across Europe, young people are rather voting for a party song than for a ballad (Sertab, Ruslana, Helena as example, last year was an exception because the Serbian song was really good), and Kalomiras song is a party song.

I'm not sure about the win, but Top 4 for Greece this year is realistic, so I take the E/W bet

5 stakes to win @23

5 stakes to finish Top 4 @5.4

Good luck, Kalomira!

Pick : Greece to win 5 stakes - Top 4 , 5 Stakes
Odds : 4.40
Stake : 5 / 10
Bookmaker : Paddy Power
Match Result :
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