Eurovision Finals - Serbia vs Top 3 Eurovision betting preview

Serbia to reach Top 3 is my bet.

Serbia, the host of this year´s Eurovision Song Contest belongs to the countries who get every year guaranteed points because of the diaspora and neighbour voting, no matter how good or bad the song is. But so far, they've never sent bad songs. 3 years ago they choosed one of the best songs in Eurovision history (Jelena Tomasevic - Morning), but because the Montenegrin jury manipulated the votes, they didn´t give Jelena a single point, so she couldn´t participate in Kiev. The Montenegrin boy band "No Name" reached the high 7. place with an average love-song because of these mentioned guaranteed points.

This year Serbia has again the best ballad, a kind of lullaby with plenty of elements of the Serbian folklore with a really good arrangement but the song is nothing special, not near as good as "Morning", sung by the same person, Jelena Tomasevic, who has really a extraordinary good voice. In my oppinion the song is good enough to reach the top 3. The favourites to win the Contest are Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Greece and Serbia. So we have 3 Ex-Soviet countries among the favourites, that means they will split the points. Serbia has by far the best song of the Ex-Yu countries and with the points of the diaspora and across Europe because the quality of the song and because the big promo tour, it should be enough to catch a top spot. I have to add that Jelena recorded 6 other versions of the song (English, Russian, Greek, Turkish, Spanish and Portuguese). Serbia also has a little draw advantage with the starting number 23 (from 25).

I expect that Serbia will get between 8 and 12 points from these countries: FYR Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, Croatia, Slovenia, Albania (!), Belgium, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden and Montenegro. These are about 120 points and the rest, about 90 points, from the other 32 countries. Last year Russia finished 3. with 207 points. So these 210 points should be enough.

If you want the safer version of this bet, take 1.70 @betfair to finish Top 4. But for me Top 3 is safe enough. Good luck!

Pick : Top 3
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Unibet
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