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Because indeed it's quite a big difference in two aspects of the game, first the staring pitcher, then the way both teams are batting lately.
Let'sstart with the pitcher, greg maddux will start this one with the padres , he has a season ERA of 3,76, and has been quite constant true the season, he is a experienced pitcher, he has some great control, and he is showing it right now – last two games were very good.
In the marlins side we will have A Miler, that has a season ERA of 9,12 – he has pitched few inings and has allowed a lot of hits – he almost doesn't strike out and i believe in this moment he is performing a lot worse then maddux – having in consideration that the padres are recovering from a bad start, and the marlins are going true abad period, the padres are hitting better then the marlins right now (0,235 vs 0,233). the only aspect the marlins have advantage is really the bullpen, they are relying on it to try to win this one, and it's posible they are able to, and that's the reason why my bet goes only until the 5th inning.
It's a good offer, in my oppinion.