Melbourne v Fremantle

Well I almost forgot about this match and I’m surprised the AFL didn’t relocate it to a small country town in need of cheering up due to the drought; though it is rather presumptuous of me to think that it would cheer people up. I’m sure in the end the match that will see the lowest ever number of fans attend the MCG for a football game will probably end up being the tightest contest and the most enthralling finish come the last quarter. And all 534 people who attended the match will be thoroughly entertained when after reading the paper twice through they look up at the scoreboard and realise there is a close finish.

Anything could happen in this match as Fremantle are generally poor away from home while save from last week’s match they have also been poor at home this season. The less said about Melbourne the better. I have been impressed with Melbourne’s commitment all season though and they have stuck out matches particularly against Geelong and Carlton and they will have a really close loss or possibly win soon.

The Dockers will be missing 3 key players in Full-Back Grover, Josh Carr in the midfield and Roger Hayden who I have in Freo’s top 8 players (along with Bell, Hasleby, Pavlich, McPharlin, Headland, Black, J.Carr.) No Hayden, J.Carr, Hasleby or Black in this match and the team is once again made up of second rate players. If they were playing a decent team they would not stand a chance. Lucky for them they are playing Melbourne.

This match will go one of two ways. Either Melbourne will be absolutely terrible and make Steven Dodd, David Mundy, Jeff Farmer, Chris Tarrant etc. seem like the greatest players to ever grace a football field, or Melbourne will realise this is the first real genuine chance they have of grabbing a win and they will lift a little (because they can’t lift that much) and keep the match close and possibly steal a win.

My head is saying the Dockers, but my feeling is Melbourne will lift. Bell, Dunn and Sylvia are out which is getting rid of 3 bits of dead wood (harsh on Sylvia and also Bell as he tries hard but he just isn’t up to it) while Dunn has been next to useless so far this season. Whelan comes back which is important for speed and also Bate finally is back in the team and hopefully he can provide an extra target up forward. So Melbourne’s team is improved.

There are two possible outcome bets for this match, Fremantle by less than 39.5 points or Melbourne +24.5. I went with a feeling bet yesterday in Collingwood and was absolutely destroyed by Hawthorn and today I will go with my feeling again as the Demons will not continue to get smashed and I think they can keep the margin within reach or possibly win it. This could be me just wishing for Melbourne to show something and this allows me to cheer them on in the hope they will help my long term bet of Freo to miss the 8 that I placed at the start of the year. Because when you find a team playing as badly as Melbourne, you have to keep backing against them as there is lots of money to be made if you keep backing the better team. Of course there will be upsets but the better teams will win more often than not. I went against this philosophy yesterday picking Collingwood against a better team though I still feel there were enough reasons for the Magpies and if I’d backed the Hawks it would have been by fewer than 39.5 or either team under 24.5 and both would have lost anyway.

Freo’s team is still better than Melbourne’s today and Pavlich is clearly the reason. The next 4 weeks the Dees play Adelaide in Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood and St.Kilda and I can’t see them getting within 30 points of any of them so this is their chance. Surely they will not play 11 games and the closest they come to anyone is 30 points? If they are going do it, this is the match. I will stick with the Demons to stay competitive though Freo really need to and should win the match.



Pick : Melbourne +24.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Skybet
Date : 2008-05-04
Match Result : 119-113
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