Collingwood v Hawthorn

This will be the match of the round played in front of a big crowd at the MCG and I’d be amazed if it disappointed. The Hawks are 6-0 while the Magpies are 3-3 but very capable. Collingwood have a tendency to lift on the big occasions and in front of a big crowd this week I expect them to.

So the Hawks have had a great start to the year, but apart from their match against Adelaide (Melbourne don’t count) they have been impressive but not really blowing teams away. They have got the job done against Freo, Brisbane, North Melbourne and last week Richmond with all those wins coming in at less than 20 points. They have a great midfield and forward set-up and are well drilled and super fit. Tough team to beat.

Collingwood have been a bit patchy, though they destroyed the Bombers last week and for this match welcome back Anthony Rocca and Captain and 250 gamer Scott Burns. I can’t help but feel the Pies have had their sights set on this match for a while as they rested Rocca last week while Burns would have played last week had it been a final so I expect him to come in to the team fully fit and ready to go.

So this may seem a little contrary to my general thoughts on Collingwood, but I think they can and will win this match. The Hawks have been up for a while now, 6 wins in a row is a great effort, though some of those matches weren’t easy by any stretch. They were stretched last week by the Tigers and I feel the Magpies are a better team than Richmond with more experience playing in big matches. As I said earlier I think they set their sights on this one and no doubt Malthouse has some kind of plan to beat the well-drilled Hawks. Rocca will want to impress after having his form questioned in the media, while Burns is a huge in not only as Captain and his clearance work around the ground, but also for the fact it is his 250th match which is a great milestone and though it’s not in the same echelon as a 300th the boys will be fired up to ensure he has a winning day. Of course we always say that good teams on winning streaks have to drop a match at some point and it is the truth (Patriots last NFL season, Celtics this NBA season) and I expect the Hawks to drop 4-6 matches this season. The only teams I can foresee beating them would be Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney and possibly Adelaide/Port Adelaide at AAMI stadium or St.Kilda if they manage to get things together. They play Adelaide at AAMI stadium and all the others in Melbourne/Tassie this season, so Sydney and Port will struggle to beat them away from their homes while they have already beaten Adelaide once this season. So where do the losses come from? A fired up Collingwood team coming off a big win with close to a full team in on a Saturday at the MCG in Round 7. Well that’s what I’m hoping anyway. I just feel that Collingwood have leg speed, inside midfielders and a solid forward line and defence as well as motivation (being 3-3 and Captain’s 250th match) as well as being a team renowned for lifting in big matches (see the preliminary final against Geelong last season where they lost by just 5 points, Geelong beat Port in the Grand Final the next week by over 120) and the Hawks are more likely to drop a match to a likely finals team than a bottom 8 one so in my eyes Collingwood has the best chance so far this season to beat the Hawks.

Of course the Hawks may prove to be too good and they also have just about a full strength line-up and they wouldn’t drop many matches with such a team in place. If anyone can do it the Magpies can this week and Hawthorn’s run will end at some point soon. If you aren’t as confident as me, take the Pies with the 15.5 head start but I’m going for the win as I really believe they can do it.



Pick : Collingwood win
Odds : 2.50
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Sportstab(AUS)
Date : 2008-05-03
Match Result : 154-89
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