Geelong v Brisbane

The Cats got away with one last week against Fremantle while the Lions were less than impressive despite easily accounting for the Demons up at the Gabba. For this match, the Lions will be missing both Nigel Lappin and Travis Johnstone and both are major losses when you’re up against the best team in the competition with just about the best midfield in the competition. Suddenly you have Brisbane’s Black, Power, Rischitelli, Stiller, Proud, Sherman and Selwood against Geelong’s midfield of Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Joel Selwood, Ling and Kelly. All of Geelong’s midfielders are better than all but 2 of Brisbane’s; Black and Power are the only two that could be any sort of trouble for Geelong. Ling is such a good stopper that he will play on Simon Black and for sure nullify his impact, leaving Luke Power as the only one who could influence the match in the midfield Brisbane’s way. Considering he is an outside player and relies on his midfield team mates to get the ball out of the packs to him even he won’t have much impact as I don’t expect the Lions to win many of the clearances against such a strong inside midfield that contains Bartel, Corey, Selwood and Ling who are all great ‘inside’ players.

Where the Lions could pose some problems is up forward. Brown and Bradshaw would have to be the most formidable double act up forward in the competition (though Franklin and Roughead for the Hawks would rival that call) and Geelong’s defence will have their work cut out matching up against them. I feel safe in the knowledge that Geelong’s defence is the best in the competition and if any team can stop the Brown/Bradshaw juggernaut it is the Cats. So Brisbane’s biggest strength can be nullified through Geelong winning more ball in the midfield and having solid defensive match-ups in Scarlett, Harley and young Taylor who has been fairly impressive so far.

Geelong are at home after not quite playing up to standard last week so I expect them to come out with some fair intensity this week and though they played in Perth, they have got themselves a 7 and a half day break which should be plenty of time to recover for a fit team. So I like the Cats in this match as their experienced midfield should be too solid for Brisbane’s young midfield and the Cats have the defense to contain B&B.

The Cats are 4-2 so far this season ats but the lions will be competitive and their 3 losses have all been under 20 points so i can't see a blowout and the line of 28.5 is pretty much spot on as the Cats weren't that impressive last week so we'll take a chance and go for a diff margin spread than usual; 20-39 points at decent odds.



Pick : Geelong by between 20-39 points
Odds : 3.75
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Sportstab(AUS)
Date : 2008-05-03
Match Result : 105-78
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