West Coast v Carlton Subiaco

The naming of the teams for this match has thrown up some chaos for both teams with Kerr, Hunter and Hurn all out for the Eagles and Thornton out for the Blues. The Eagles injury list now includes their two best midfielders in Kerr and Priddis, a hard working inside midfielder in Shannon Hurn, goal sneak Mark LeCras and Centre-Half Back Adam Hunter. Carlton has a longer injury list but only Thornton, Houlihan, Hadley and Bannister are in their best team and 3 of these guys can be covered. The one injury for Carlton I am worried about is Thornton’s. Carlton’s defence is inexperienced with Jamison and Bower the two key players back there for this match. They have got away with this defence in a couple of matches this year due to the outstanding form of Thornton who is floating around the half back line picking up lots of disposals and helping out Jamison and Bower when they need it. He is the only one with decent experience in that defence and it will be interesting to see how the defence copes without him.

West Coast has more serious problems though in that they are missing better players than Carlton’s with Kerr, Priddis, Hunter, LeCras and Hurn all out. As with most matches, the team that can gain the advantage in the midfield (winning clearances, contested possessions) will have more of the ball therefore more opportunities to get the ball forward and score. Considering I feel Carlton have the advantage in the midfield with the Eagles missing their stars and Carlton have the forward set-up with Fevola, Fisher, Betts and Judd also kicking goals that should score more than the Eagles, Carlton deserve to go in to this match as favourites. For most of the week I’ve been all over Carlton but as the time gets closer to the match starting, I feel the Eagles are a huge chance. The reasons are: West Coast has barely been competitive for the past few weeks and there is a feeling around that its crunch time for both Western Australian teams; Worsfold has said they cannot make the finals this year which can really break the shackles less pressure = better performance; and Carlton have not won a match in their past 11 attempts at Subiaco.

Needless to say I’m not fully confident with this pick and despite my growing feelings for the Eagles, I’m going to stick with my original pick of Carlton as they have a stronger midfield, kick more goals and they have Chris Judd. Whoever has him wins this match, last year it was West Coast and Juddy picked up 35 touches, this year he’s with Carlton. I expect a big match from the Eagles tonight but they have too much quality out while Dean Cox is not fit and even may miss. This is one of my least confident tips for the week though.

Pick : Carlton by under 39.5 points
Odds : 2.30
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Sportstab(AUS)
Date : 2008-05-02
Match Result : 74-111
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

Viewed 284 times.