Port Adelaide v St.Kilda

Port get back home after finally winning their first match of the year last week against the Eagles in Perth while the Saints are coming off a win against the Bombers after dropping their previous 2. Straight away this is a difficult match to pick as Port have shown glimpses of their great form last season and the Saints have shown glimpses of top 4 form all season, but neither have really been able to string together a full match of this good form. This should be a close match with showers forecast throughout the day in Adelaide so the scoring will likely be limited with a wet ground keeping the scores close.

Both midfield’s match up well with each other, the saints regain tagger Steven Baker from that ludicrous suspension he received blocking Jeff Farmer last season and he will be a welcome addition tagging one of Shaun Burgoyne, Chad Cornes or David Rodan. The Power has goal scoring options up forward in Tredrea, Ebert, Westoff and Motlop but the Saints defence is solid with Hudghton, Maguire and Fisher doing the job so far, Hudghton was great last week and as long as the Saints keep up the midfield pressure that Ross Lyon demands of them Port will have trouble kicking a big score. Up the other end, the Saints forwards clearly have an advantage over their respective opponents and Riewoldt has yet to play a really big game so one is not far off. As with most matches the midfield battle is crucial and I expect the Cornes and Burgoyne boys to be on for this match as despite the fact they won last week, they are still 1-4 and have a bit of work to do.

I’m not terribly impressed with St.Kilda’s team for this match – King, Gardiner, Gilbert, Schneider are all missing Schneider in particular would have been great to have in likely wet conditions and given Milne’s poor usual form when playing interstate. Clearly Port has an advantage in their big men – Lade and Brogan but a wet night will limit their impact.

All week I’ve been looking at taking Port -, but I still believe the Saints are a chance particularly if it’s wet. If the forecast was for a dry day I would have taken Port, but given their horrible effort against the Lions in that wet last quarter 2 weeks ago the Saints are still a chance and their slower midfield will not be shown up as much. I decided last week I was going to back one team or the other and stop with the either team under bets and I’ll probably wish I had by the end of this match, but even still the Port Adelaide advantage is only slight and though I expect them to win, the Saints are starting to get their structure together and along with Goddard hitting form they have their wet weather specialist back in Shane Birss and who is to deny his impact?



Pick : Either Team Under 24.5 Points
Odds : 1.97
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-26
Match Result : 82-61
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