Carlton v Adelaide

At the MCG Carlton takes on Adelaide in Round 6. The Blues have won 2 in a row after losing their first 3, with wins against Collingwood and Melbourne. They are an improved team with the inclusions of Judd, Stevens and Kreuzer while Murphy is showing why he was a top draft pick. They were solid for most of the match last week but let it slip in the last quarter to win by over 20 when they really should have won 40+. So two decent performances for the Blues and they get this match-up in Melbourne which will help their chances of making it 3 in a row.

Adelaide got back on the winners list with a victory over Fremantle though in similar circumstances to Carlton, they let a decent lead slip and didn’t win by as many as they should have. For this match, Chris Knights comes back in to the midfield and he improves the team.

My tip for this match is Adelaide. My reasons are as follows:

Both teams played at a similar level last week but previously Adelaide were showing better form and game plan than the Blues.

Carlton’s win against the Magpies was a mismatch in motivation Carlton were about the emotion of stopping the losing run, while Collingwood weren’t up for the match after an easy victory against Richmond the week before.

Adelaide will pressure the Blues and have the fitness to run back the other way and create plenty of scoring opportunities. The Blues pressure isn’t quite as disciplined and they can’t sustain it for the match.

I rate Adelaide as a better team still who should be there abouts in terms of making the 8, the Blues on the other hand are still a year away from playing finals and Adelaide need to beat bottom 8 teams.

Adelaide's defence is experienced and with their midfield pressure, Fev won't get the same opportunities he has had the last few weeks.

Backing against Carlton after 2 wins with Judd in full flight is a little risky, but I’m going with the team who I believe should be more consistent throughout the year in terms of their defensive efforts and adherence to the coach’s game plan so for me the Crows will get the win by about 25 points in a likely high-scoring match.



Pick : Adelaide -6.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-26
Match Result : 81-111
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