Not the easiest bet, but I think that this is the best bet of the night. I see two choices here, Over or the Lakers. The chances of Denver stopping them below 110 – 115 are slim to none. I wouldn't be surprised by 125 points performance by the Lakers even. So the question is what Denver will do. If Lakers will score 125 points, it really doesn't matter, because both the Over and Lakers will be a done deal. The true question is, how much will Denver score if Lakers will score only 115 – 118 points. If they score between 95 – 105 points, than Lakers is the right bet. If they will score 110 – 112 points, than it is the Over who seems more accurate here.

I have a good feeling about both picks, because I think we will see 120+ points by the Lakers, leaving Denver around 106 – 111 points only. But, having said that, I trust Lakers defense. Kobe "MVP" Bryant has elevated his defensive skills by a level and Odom is actually one of the best Carmelo's defenders you can find in the league (he and Battier). Is it a great bet? No. Is it worth a shot? Yes. I will lower the line, despite the lower odds and get decent line as well.

Lakers -7 is the pick here.



Pick : Lakers -7
Odds : 1.78
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : 5dimes
Date : 2008-04-20
Match Result : 128-114
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