Richmond v Bulldogs

Not quite sure what will happen in this match, the Bulldogs are flying winning 4 from 4 so far this season, while the Tigers are 2-2 coming off an impressive 60 point drubbing of Fremantle in Perth. Last week the Bulldogs came from behind at three-quarter time to beat the Bombers who were short on the bench after a couple of hamstring injuries during the match, so the Dogs ran all over them in the last quarter. They were sloppy against the Crows but got away with a win, and did the job on the Dees but against St.Kilda was by far their most impressive performance of the season coming from 37 points down at quarter time to win by around that margin.

They missed Scott West last week and he won’t play this week either, while there are reports that Brad Johnson is unfit and would have potentially missed this match had it been played either Friday or Saturday. The Bulldogs have West Coast next week at the Dome which on the Eagles current form should be a win and an expected win in this match would leave them 6-0. Of course this seems the most likely scenario at this point, but I think the Tigers have the best chance of the next two weeks to give the Bulldogs their first defeat. Will the Dogs be switched on? How big a loss is Scott West? And how much will Brad Johnson be restricted due to his soft tissue problem? For the Tigers, will it be the Richmond who played Freo last week or the horrible team that turned up against the Magpies two weeks ago that looked anything but an AFL side? So many questions and not many answers at this stage. If Richmond plays like they did last week they could easily win. I would expect their confidence to be up and I can’t see the Bulldogs running away with game. They have pace and run in the midfield that could trouble the Dogs without West while like I said Johnson’s impact is an unknown.

I would not be surprised by a 60 point bulldog win though disappointed in Richmond’s effort coming off such a good win but on the other side, a 40 point Richmond win would not surprise me either. The Dogs have been great though and backing against them is backing against a good team in good form. I considered the Bulldogs by fewer than 39.5, Richmond +18.5 and +24.5, but I must admit I really have no idea. The Bulldogs are the safer option as they are in form though I expect a better Melbourne performance from the Tigers than the one against Collingwood.

What I will look for however is for the total match score of this match to make it over 218.5. So far 3 of the 4 Bulldogs matches have made it over this mark, while the other match against the Saints ended on 212. The Tigers have posted scores of 210, 200 and 213 in 3 of their matches so far. I would expect higher scoring matches between attacking teams involving The Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton and Richmond who play little defence and given this match is at Telstra Dome on a great surface I expect the scoring to be high. Last Season the Bulldogs played in 9 matches out of 22 that made it over this mark including the only time these two teams met in round 3 which ended on 232. I would expect a similar number of games to go over that mark this year, possibly more involving the Bulldogs and you could rule out matches against more defensive, lower scoring teams like Sydney and West Coast and already St.Kilda.

Both teams will be confident in their ability to win this match so I expect an attacking game while the Tigers leaving out tagger Daniel Jackson only further supports my attacking game plan argument.

I won’t play with a major stake, but 7 should give us a bit back.



Pick : Total Match Score over 218.5
Odds : 1.85
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Sportstab(AUS)
Date : 2008-04-20
Match Result : 130-130
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