Carlton v Melbourne

Well I should be 5 from 5 so far this weekend with the two I missed out on Adelaide -18.5 (they won by 17 after being over 20 points up for the majority of the match) and Geelong <39.5 (after they lead by around 20 for the entire match they kicked 4 goals in as many minutes to finish off the game and take the total over 40 for the first time in the match, 42 points.) That’s the second Geelong win by 42 points in the last two weeks when I had them fewer than 39.5 and both times they were only about a 20-30 point better team, not 42. Of course this is betting and they’ll fall your way some weeks, at this stage picking winners is no issue, but margins are agonisingly close. Hopefully for Sunday’s matches we can turn our margin issue around.

Carlton hit form last week against the Magpies outplaying them in work rate and endeavour for the majority of the match and they finished the match off strongly after Collingwood strung together a few goals in the last quarter to apply some pressure. The Blues performance was more about snapping that potential record losing streak and while they were up for that match, may take the foot off the pedal for this one against far weaker opposition.

Melbourne again tried hard last week against the Kangaroos but they are still a good deal behind most of the other teams in the competition. Their errors are terrible and they seem to have no system. Robbo and Neitz just can’t be the only goal kicking options, while I reckon around 14 of the named team for this match would not get a game at any of the top clubs. For this match they lose Brad Miller who has been serviceable so far this season and provides as a potential tall in defence or in attack. With Judd and Stevens hitting some match fitness and Murphy and Carrazzo finding the ball at the rate they are, the Blues will be hard to beat in the midfield and without many scoring options Melbourne just can’t kick a winning score. At some stage they should win a match and Carlton is still likely to be rather inconsistent at times so stranger things have happened. But I’m backing Carlton to not relax and come out with their confidence high off the back of Captain Judd and Stevens in the midfield. Those guys will ensure the energy is up and the rest of the team will follow. With the big Fev finding some form, he should relish the supply he will receive in this match and kick another bag against Carroll.

Average losing margin for the Dees this season is 69 points, and if Carlton get going they’ll win by 40 plus. Of course if I tip that, they’ll win by 39 or 38 so I’ll take them at the line of 15.5 at skybet which is well under the 20.5 at other bookies but getting 1.83 for that is great value and which should be comfortable for the Blues to cover. I'm taking the lowest line i can find after yesterday's matches! I expect the Dees to kick a decent score today though against a Blues team not so defensively minded and the Blues will kick more so it should be a high-scoring entertaining match which hopefully sees a win by 16, 17, 18, 19 or 20 points so I can feel I made the right decision!

Pick : Carlton -15.5
Odds : 1.83
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Skybet
Date : 2008-04-20
Match Result : 101-68
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