Brisbane v Hawthorn, Gabba

Well this is just about the hardest match to pick this weekend as the Hawks are proving to be the second best team in the comp while the Lions will be confident after coming from behind last week in that amazing match against Port Adelaide at AAMI stadium. This match will be played in Brisbane and I expect the Lions to be super competitive at their home ground for the year. Inclusions Daniel Bradshaw and Travis Johnstone have both been terrific since coming back in to the team this season and with Black, Lappin, Power, Brown, Charman, Adcock and young Leunberger have a core group of players that will be competitive against most anyone. Last weeks win against the Crows was impressive from the Hawks and for this game they get back Lewis, Mitchell and Croad who would all be in the top 10 players at the club. They run hard, tackle, chase and do all the defensive things that win games while their foot skills are great and guys like Franklin, Roughead and Williams up forward are all match winning forwards. There is no doubt they are the second best team in the competition at this stage and are a real chance to take Geelong’s crown by the end of the season.

The Match-ups are in the Hawks favour thanks to their depth and Franklin, Roughead, Williams will pose problems for the Lions down back, Merrett and Patfull will need a lot of help if they are to be successful in containing them. Down the other end, the Lions have a potent mix as well with Brown, Bradshaw and Brennan and although Gilham has been good down back for the Hawks, he’ll struggle against an in-form Daniel Bradshaw. Croad-Brown will almost certainly be the match-up of the night and if JB can have a big night, the Lions are a chance. Croad has strength and aerobic ability though and should be able to go with him for most of the match. As always the midfield battle is the key though the Hawks midfield just looks in such good touch. They are finding the ball more than the Lions, averaging an amazing 82 more disposals and if the match plays true to this statistic there will be only one winner. The Lions average 10.5 more tackles so far though and they’ll need to keep up this pressure if they want to contain the Hawks.

The Hawks really do look good, but I don’t want to underestimate the Lions at home particularly given the shot of confidence they will receive after last week’s win. All week I have been leaning towards the Lions, but after looking in to this game further the Hawks just seem to good and if they bring their A game they will win. My feeling for the Lions seems to be based on the fact that the Hawks have to drop a match some time and an interstate match against a team coming off the back of a great victory seems like an opportunity for an upset. They play Richmond and Collingwood in the next two weeks in Melbourne and both should be W’s. Either team under 24.5 points is a big possibility particularly if there is a little rain around which is possible. But with medium odds, I’ll take the team of the moment to continue their strong form though not convincingly away from home.



Pick : Hawthorn by under 39.5
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-19
Match Result : 130-118
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