St.Kilda v Essendon, Telstra Dome

A much improved performance was needed from the Saints last week after their bashing in the media and they provided it in the first quarter totally outplaying Geelong with 11 scoring shots to 4. Unfortunately they couldn’t put much scoring pressure on and the score at quarter time was 4.7 to 4.0. Their poor kicking continued for the rest of the match and when you don’t take your opportunities against the best there is only one inevitable conclusion. As I wrote last week, Geelong just needed to break away for 10 minutes to blow apart the match and in the third term they kicked 6 goals in 10 minutes and that was the difference. Unfortunately we had the Cats to win by under 39.5 but despite only having 2 more scoring shots than the Saints, they won by 42 through very straight kicking for goal and St.Kilda’s poor kicking for goal.

So the Saints have now lost 2 in a row, both at Telstra Dome to Geelong and the Bulldogs. For this match they have made 2 changes to the team which more importantly corresponds to 1 major structural change. Fraser Gehrig has been dropped along with Aaron Fiora while Charlie Gardiner comes in and young David Armitage as well. Dropping Gehrig is a big sign that there will be structural changes up forward, with 2 talls now rather than 3 the forward line is smaller but more agile and able to work better defensively like pressuring, laying tackles etc. Gardiner will play across the half forward line and be a lead up option (taking Riewoldt’s place) while I expect Riewoldt to play closer to goal. Koschitzke will have to play some time in the ruck as King is the only genuine ruckman in the team with Michael Gardiner out. It’s a really new look structure than the tall team they have tried for the first few rounds. Armitage will help against the Bombers as well thanks to his speed around the ground. The line-up now suits playing against smaller running teams like the Bombers and is a step in the right direction.

Essendon regain Matthew Lloyd and Andrew Welsh but lose their best player for the year in Mark McVeigh. He will be a big loss as though the Bomber midfield is quick St.Kilda can pressure hard and an experienced body like McVeigh provides leadership and strength at the stoppages. This is where the Saints can hold the advantage and guys like Hayes, Ball and Clint Jones can prevent the Bombers running away from the packs and using their speed through tackling and pressure. Matthew Lloyd returning is of course a big in for the Bombers but I think the Saints have any one of Hudghton, Fisher and Maguire if he pushes up the ground a bit to pick him up while as always the factor will be the amount of quality football that the midfield can deliver to him.

So the Bombers will run as always in their attacking way, and if they can win the clearances are a chance to win the game. St.Kilda played all over the Cats in the first term last week but struggled to sustain it for the entire match. I don’t believe this will be such an issue against the Bombers who don't pressure as much or have the class in the midfield. The Saints will make the top 8 this year, the Bombers won’t and after 2 losses in a row it’s time for the Saints to take care of business against an inferior side and I expect a St.Kilda victory.

The margin could be anything, the Saints beating Carlton by 40 points and Sydney by 2. I think the Bombers will play better than Carlton did when the margin was 40 and the Saints rarely last season won by more than 39 points. Twice in fact in 11 wins. All pre-season matches were won by under 40, and with their poor kicking for goal of late, it is far more likely the margin will be under 39.5 than over. The line is set at 18.5 which I am not confident in taking as like I said earlier they don’t blow teams away last season were 6 wins over 19 points, 5 wins under. Essendon should keep the margin realatively within reach.



Pick : St.Kilda by under 39.5 points
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-18
Match Result : 123-87
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

Viewed 141 times.