West Coast v Port Adelaide

This is a rather important match for both teams early on in the season. Port last years Grand Finalists have yet to win a match in their first 4 rounds, including that amazing match last week against the Lions after they lead by 48 points in the third quarter and 33 points at three quarter time in torrential rain - which usually makes it harder to score - the bookies had them at 1.02 at the last break, yet Brisbane produced the 7th greatest comeback in League Football history kicking 9.6 to 1.1 in the last quarter to win the match. All this from a team who were playing at home, yet to win a match so super motivated with just about a full strength squad and you get one of the more bizarre results from the past few seasons. True to my weekend last week, I was on the Power including them being the last leg of decent multibet. Though they lost many people money last week, 5 losses in the first 5 rounds from a relatively unchanged line-up that made the Grand Final last year will just not happen. There is nothing wrong with Port’s team; they have had a tough draw so far playing likely finalists in Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide while last week strangely enough the rain allowed the Lions back in to the match while Port took the foot off the pedal. Against inferior opposition this week the foot will not get lifted.

The Eagles have had a horror start to the season and look likely to be confined to the bottom half of the bottom 8. Cousins and Judd in particular were pivotal in the Eagles game plan for the past few seasons and without them the holes really start to show. They are such good players that they make everyone around them seem better by bringing them into the game while Lynch and Hansen up forward must be dreaming of a trade to Carlton where Judd can once again deliver them the ball like he is with Fevola at the moment. Daniel Kerr has big shoulders but is struggling under the weight of carrying the midfield and there are reports he already wants out to either join Judd at Carlton or any of the other Victorian teams who will all be in the market for him. Last week they lost easily in a controversial game against Sydney which saw Barry Hall suspended for punching Brent Staker in the jaw. Without Priddis and Embley last week they had no answer in the midfield, Priddis is expected to miss this week as well. The Eagles are not kicking enough goals, even in their Grand Final years they never kicked massive scores and without Judd and Cousins who kicked goals and delivered it to the forwards to kick goals they lack scoring power in a big way. Lynch and Hansen are both good players but if the ball is not coming in much or delivered poorly and under pressure they will have limited opportunities. The midfield is the issue and Worsfold needs to make some changes by throwing in Waters, Butler, Rosa and even LeCras when he comes back in to the midfield to hopefully find someone that can shoulder some extra workload and blossom without Judd, Cousins etc.

Both teams will be looking for an improved performance this week however Port has the team most likely to do it while 5 losses in a row to last seasons grand finalist seems as unlikely as Brisbane coming back from 48 points in the rain. Well, if they can’t win this match they won’t make the 8 and shows that last years great result was luck with injuries and players playing above themselves. Do I believe this? Luck with injuries yes but they are a good team and the Eagles are wounded on the field and off the field. Subiaco being a large ground will suit Port’s run and carry midfield and with the motivation firmly in their corner will win this match.



Pick : Port Adelaide -4.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-20
Match Result : 128-104
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