Hawthorn v Adelaide

This should be a great match as both sides along with Geelong and the Bulldogs are the top 4 form sides of the competition. The Crows have been surprisingly so with many tipping a slide down the ladder as the team ages and previously important players were traded or injured. However Neil Craig has once again shown he is a great coach with the change to a more attacking style of play, the injection of new run and youthful enthusiasm in to the midfield and a structural change up forward with Goodwin and Edwards spending more time kicking goals. All of this has been achieved without compromising their signature defensive pressure they apply all over the ground meaning they are a formidable unit to play against.

Particularly impressive has been Richard Douglas and Bernie Vince who have slotted in to the midfield and taken over from Goodwin and Edwards as they spend more time up forward. They are a smaller running team with pace in the midfield and smart options up forward which shows Neil Craig has moved with the times while getting the most out of the players he has. This is in contrast to the archaic player structure Ross Lyon is employing at St.Kilda - but that is an argument for another day.

The Hawks have also been impressive this year with wins against Melbourne, Fremantle in Perth and last week’s steal against the Roos. They certainly show signs of being the leading challenger to the Cats crown and last week’s come from behind victory showed lots of maturity for a team often accused of lacking some. Alastair Clarkson has built a team that runs hard, has top skills, plays defence and has match winning options in Franklin and Roughead. Shane Crawford returns for this match however Jordan Lewis sits out after being suspended in his first game back from suspension. That is the discipline problem that will hopefully be sorted come finals time.

Though the Crows have opened up their game style, last weeks match against Port was a tough defensive and bruising match and I expect a more defensive struggle today as both teams work hard at pressuring their opposition. Of course the midfield is the key area and it is difficult to find a clear winner. They match up like this:

Mitchell – Goodwin, Crawford – Edwards, Hodge – Thompson, Bateman – McLeod, Sewell – Vince, Tuck – Douglas and so on. Picking a winner out of each match-up is really not possible. I expect both teams to win their share of clearances so whoever capitalises on their opportunities will likely be the winner. Up forward then the Hawks have options and match winners and looks stronger than Adelaide’s. However Adelaide’s defence is stronger than Hawthorn’s and in Rutten, Bock and Stevens have great match-ups for Franklin, Roughead and Boyle. Down the other end, Burton has been in good form while Tippett, Porplyzia, Goodwin, Edwards and McGregor all offer goal kicking options. Gilham has been great at full-back for the Hawks, but it will be the smaller defenders in Brown, Birchall, Ladson and Guerra who will need to be tight when matched up with smart players like Porplyzia and Edwards and Goodwin as these guys will be Adelaide’s match winners if they are left alone.

The Crows had a tough encounter in the Showdown last week which would have taken a bit out of them physically, but they are a super fit team and I don’t think this will affect them too much. Backing against either team goes against my good judgement here and I expect a close hard fought match as you can see I am struggling to pick a winner. The last time these two teams played was in the Elimination final last year at Telstra Dome where the Hawks won the match from the last kick of the day, breaking a run of 4 straight Adelaide victories. I am looking forward to watching two of the current best teams in the competition go head to head and stay close to one another for the entire match with either team winning by under 24.5 points.



Pick : Either team by under 24.5 points
Odds : 2.05
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-13
Match Result : 114-70
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

Viewed 208 times.