Carlton v Collingwood

Well we missed on Collingwood in round 1 and round 3, its not that I’ve been underestimating them, I’ve been giving the benefit of the doubt to teams that probably don’t deserve it in Freo and Richmond. Last weeks match against the Tigers is not much of a yardstick as the Tigers were abysmal, but Carlton is hardly ahead of the Tigers at this stage and really a motivated Collingwood side should win this match comfortably.

The Blues have lost to Richmond, Essendon and St.Kilda and for the most part never looked like they could get the job done. They have improved since last season of course with Judd, Stevens and Hadley coming in to the midfield, while Kreuzer was last week impressive in his first match after being the no.1 pick in last season’s draft. The talk all week has been from Carlton involving the clubs record long losing streak which will become a record if they lose this match. They talk determined and I believe will put in a solid effort. The workhorse midfield of Collingwood will need to be at their best as Judd and Stevens could win this match on their own if their opponents are not close by. This however is the only way Carlton can win this match; Fevola can go missing against the better teams while he really has no other goal kicking friends beside him. The Defence will also struggle to contain Rocca and Cloke, while Didak, Thomas, Davis and Medhurst will be too much for the inexperienced Carlton defence to cover. Collingwood Captain Scott Burns will miss the match, however with all due respect to Scott he is part of the well-oiled Collingwood midfield and another player can step in to his place comfortably, so he is not the loss that Judd would be if he missed a match for the Blues. I think the Magpies can get first hands on the ball at the stoppages with Fraser and Wood in the ruck, both are well ahead of Cloke while Kreuzer will have a tougher assignment this week if he finds himself against Josh Fraser. This will limit the impact of Judd and Stevens around the stoppages while the Magpies have been very solid defensively this season despite losing their general James Clement to retirement at the end of last year.

As I’ve written in earlier previews, the Magpies have not destroyed teams over the last 2 seasons winning all their matches last year by less than 39 points. They played twice last season with Collingwood winning by 24 points on both occasions. There is no doubt the Blues have an improved side and will be motivated for their first win while Collingwood’s 50 point win last week said more about the Tigers than Collingwood. I think the Magpies will get it done by between 15 to 30 points so we’ll take them by under 39.5.



Pick : Collingwood by under 39.5 points
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-13
Match Result : 111-88
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