St.Kilda v Geelong

This should be a fascinating match between the best team in the competition and one of the teams with a genuine chance of challenging for that title. Former Geelong Captain Steven King will also play his first match against Geelong after being pushed out of the club at the end of last year in favour of young ruckman Mark Blake.

Well the Saints had begun life well this year and at quarter time last week they would have been feeling pretty well on top of things as they lead the Bulldogs by 37 points. However things can change quickly these days and the Bulldogs up-tempo running game style did just that, reeling in the deficit and coasting to a 6 goal victory. The Saints were outrun by the Dogs and got smashed in contested possessions which is supposed to be the key area for the Saints under Coach Ross Lyon. To be honest, a turnaround like that is not something that would happen very often, particularly given the Saints are seen by many, myself included as a top 4 contender. A lack of effort/motivation after quarter time as well as a lack of pace was the reasons for the turnaround and subsequent loss. It begs the question though; with the game becoming faster, are the Saints to big and slow? I believe that yes they are, and that the right set-up has yet to be found. Ross Lyon wants Hayes and Ball around the packs because they are great tacklers and apply great pressure, like Kirk and Bolton for the Swans; and he wants Dal Santo playing the quarterback role across half back like Kennelly and Malceski for the Swans. I can see the similarities between the two teams that Ross Lyon is aiming for. However, the Saints will struggle against quick teams because they lack pace in the middle. Right now Steven Baker is out and he would make a difference. Young Armitage and Clint Jones are more the future and are better defensively than Aaron Fiora and Leigh Fisher and are also faster. Utilising the talent at St.Kilda is Ross Lyon’s biggest issue, if he can find the right mix they will be a force. I really like the Saints to put in a huge effort this week, but I still don’t think they have the right team in – they need more pace, Dal Santo should play more up forward and in the midfield where he can be dangerous and kick goals and the big fellas up forward need to stop getting in each others way… Riewoldt needs to become more involved somehow.

For Geelong, they cruised to a comfortable victory last week against Melbourne though they never looked terribly interested in the contest. I would expect that to change this week as a fired up St.Kilda will pose problems beyond what the Demons could conjure up last week. The Cats midfield is working brilliantly; Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Selwood, Ling, Enright, and Wojcinski are all dominant while Chapman, Johnson and Stokes continue their great form from last season up forward complementing Mooney and Hawkins.

The Saints will need to get there match-ups right down back, if they are to hold up Chapman, Stokes and Johnson as they will all pose problems - Gram is too loose and yet will likely have to play on one of them. The Match-ups will interest, I hope Gram is released to play his dashing half-back role while Dempster, Sam Fisher and either Blake or Leigh Fisher can lock down the above mentioned 3 small forwards for Geelong. Bartel and Ablett will be tagged – Fisher, Blake the likely candidates and much will depend how they go keeping those two Cats tied down. The Saints have brought in Matt Maguire for his first game of the year, and another defender in Sean Dempster for his first match for the club. Both are defenders and this in my view points towards the Saints plan to lock up the match and not let Geelong run. Fisher and Blake are both slow defensive midfielders/defenders and both were retained in favour of young quick Armitage and Jones confirming the defensive mindset. If the Saints can successfully lock the game down and win the contested ball and clearances, the match will be close. They are slow though and if Geelong can break away and get their running game going, the Saints will lose by 5 goals or more.

Motivation for this match rests firmly with the Saints who coped an absolute bashing from much of the media during the week after their capitulation against the Bulldogs and while Geelong should be motivated, last week was not an ideal lead in to what will be a physically tough pressure environment. Motivation will only get you so far though and the Cats can weather the likely storm and that little bit of extra talent/zip will end up the difference.

At this stage of the season, I am prepared to give the Saints the benefit of the doubt after losing their way last week to be in this match and keep it close but as I said earlier, I am not confident they quite have the set-up right and I don’t envisage any major structural changes for this match; Geelong just need to get on top for even one quarter out of the 4 to get ahead and stay ahead. Geelong will lose some matches this year and win some close ones though unlikely against any bottom 8 teams and if the Saints can’t perform here after they promised a better effort and at least get within 39.5 points they need to really change things up. I’m expecting a lower scoring match, the Saints will pressure hard and not let the Cats escape though the reality is The Cats are right now a better team and in a tough bruising encounter, I think they have just a bit too much for the Saints and will win by under 39.5 points.



Pick : Geelong by under 39.5 points
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Centrebet
Date : 2008-04-12
Match Result : 64-136
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