Melbourne V North Melbourne MCG

Last week the Kangaroos threw away a game they should have won against the Hawks but we made the right decision taking them at the +18 which they achieved, while the Demons showed a bit of heart hanging in against Geelong and not getting blown away – bad for our betting but good for the Demons fans. I watched the game and The Cats never really got going and clearly lacked motivation which is understandable but predictably won the game comfortably despite Melbourne’s best efforts. For this match the Kangaroos have got back Jesse Smith while youngsters Ross and Lower join the team as Hale is forced out due to injury and young Swallow and Leigh Harding have been dropped. The Demons team looks to have improved with inclusion of Jamar and Whelan who will add some extra run to the backline.

So far Melbourne has played two dismal games and one decent game that was definitely needed. They still turned the ball over a lot against the Cats and were definitely a class below their opponents, however the Cats played at 50% for the match and had they been fully motivated like the previous round, they would have had around a ten goal win. The Kangaroos are 1-2 after losing a game against a team unlikely to make finals in Essendon and dropping a game they lead for the majority of last week against Hawthorn. I think the Roos will be especially motivated to win this match; going 1-3 in the first 4 rounds is something I cannot see after playing 3 of those matches against weak Victorian teams like Essendon, Richmond and Melbourne. They know they need to win this match as the draw will only get tougher from here. As for Melbourne, can they play another match like last week’s 4 quarter effort against the Cats? Well, yes they can. Last week will give them a bit of confidence that there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Their team looks better as well with Rivers slotting back into the defence and the inclusions of Bartram and Whelan and the young Wonaemirri who showed a bit last week.

As for the match-ups, the Kangaroos have the edge in the midfield with Simpson, Wells, Grant, Harvey, Harris and Rawlings all hard workers with a touch of class. McLean, Sylvia, McDonald, Jones all work hard but lack the class while Bruce and Green are still finding their roles in Dean Bailey’s new run and handball game style. The Demons average 31.3 more handballs than the Roos and 20 more disposals a match but the Roos average 16 more inside 50’s a match which is a lot considering 40-50 inside 50’s is a good number. That’s almost a third more inside 50’s.

Up forward, the Demons still have goal kicking options and if the midfield can find a target when they deliver to the forwards, either Neitz or Robertson could kick a bag. So far though turnovers are happening at a constant rate. Against a well-drilled motivated team that last year finished top 4 much on the back of their pressure and top players who are all playing in this match, I can’t see the Demons winning much more of the ball than the Roos and if they do the high turnovers will likely continue thanks to the Roos midfield pressure.

The Demons will have trouble with the Roos forward line which has more options than Melbourne’s. Anyone of Thompson, Edwards, Corey Jones, Grant and Thomas and Campbell could kick a bag of goals and so to Petrie if he spends time up forward (though will more than likely play in the ruck with Hale out). Trying to find suitable match-ups for all of these players in particular Corey Jones will be an issue for the Melbourne coaching staff.

Though the Demons played better last week, I would be amazed if the Roos were not motivated for this one and if they are to play finals footy, let alone make top 4 they should win this match and should get it done by over 15.5 points. 13 of their 15 wins last year came by over 15.5 points, while the Demons dropped 12 of their 17 losses by over 15.5.



Pick : North Melbourne by over 15.5 points
Odds : 1.75
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-12
Match Result : 127-79
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