Western Bulldogs v Essendon

There are a few matches I really like this weekend. This is the first one and it involves the total match score. Last week we hit with the Carlton/Essendon total match score over 221, and this game sees possibly the 2 most open game styles in the league against each other and a more than likely chance that the match score will again make it over 221. So far, Essendon are playing to their strengths under new coach Matthew Knights as they run and carry the football utilising their leg speed in the midfield. It is a very taxing style of game and risky as turnovers usually result in free opposition players, thus easy opposition scores. This is also the case for the Bulldogs. Playing at Telstra Dome under the roof in perfect conditions this will be as close to Basketball as Australians will get this winter.

The Bulldogs are so far averaging 137.3 points a match, while Essendon are averaging 107.6 though that included scoring 51 against Geelong which leaves them having an average of 136 in their other 2 matches. There will be no let up for this match. The pace will be fast, there will be many goals scored meaning 221 should be comfortably covered.

The only thing that will hamper this bet is if both teams kick poorly for goal and it ends up being 13.20 to 14.21 (203) or something similar. 7 of the last 10 matches these teams have played have made it over 221. So far 58.6 is the average scoring shots in games involving these teams so far this year. I would expect at least this amount Friday night as neither team will change game style and it is unlikely that both teams will kick poorly in good conditions at Telstra Dome.



Pick : Total Match Points over 221
Odds : 1.80
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Sportstab(AUS)
Date : 2008-04-11
Match Result : 98-128
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