Richmond v Collingwood

Richmond has regained Captain Kane Johnson for this match as well as bringing in young Mitch Morton which will improve the team and ensure they are competitive. Last year Richmond finished last yet still beat Collingwood who almost claimed a Grand Final birth so this will be no easy match for the Magpies. The Tigers last week lost to North Melbourne at the MCG; though the match was all about the Roos after their dismal display in round 1, while the Tigers missed Johnson, Coughlan, Morton and Riewoldt who would all be a part of their best team. Richmond will still struggle this year with a healthy list so missing a few players and facing a motivated team in North Melbourne were the reasons for the result. I think the Tigers can trouble Collingwood today, they have run through the midfield and a forward line capable of kicking goals. Richo finally has some help with a fit Brown and Simmonds, Pettifer, Deledio and likely Morton who kicked 6 goals last week in the VFL spending time up forward. The Magpies though hold the advantage with Rocca and Cloke up forward and their array of smaller goal kickers like Thomas, Didak, Davis and Medhurst. The Tigers still have an issue down back and if they can’t win the clearances in the midfield Rocca and Cloke will easily win out against Thursfield, Schultz, Moore, Polak or whoever else the Tigers will try on them.

Richmond has won 3 of the past 4 matches against Collingwood and will feel quietly confident going in to this match. 10 of Collingwood’s 15 wins last season came by 24 points or under with two 25 point wins thrown in for good measure. Most are tipping the Magpies by fewer than 39.5 and this does seem like a good bet. I have a real feeling that Richmond can win this match though as the Magpies dropped matches against Melbourne, the Bulldogs and Richmond last year (all bottom 4 teams) while beating the other bottom team Carlton by 24 points, and the other match-up with Richmond by 25 both at the MCG. I think the Tigers are a better team this year with Brown and Simmonds fit, and the additions of McMahon and Morton through the midfield, while Tambling, Thursfield, Pattison and Deledio have all shown a hint of improvement. I like Richmond here but they might not be able to finish off the job and take the win, if they do Collingwood won’t let it blow out – 9 losses last year 7-2 by less than 24.5 points. That’s 17 of 24 matches decided by under this margin for Collingwood last year, including 2 25 pointers while taking out the two losses to the Cats last year the Tigers played in 10/19 matches decided by under 24 points, two of the over’s were 25 and the others mostly occurred in a run of 5 bad losses later in the season when all was lost and motivation was low. I don’t believe the Magpies have improved since last season, I think the Tigers have.

Either team to take this one out by under 24.5 points.



Pick : Either team to win by under 24.5 points
Odds : 2.06
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-06
Match Result : 78-122
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